Changes in land surface air temperature annual cycle amplitude over the last millennium
摘要
The amplitude of the annual temperature cycle (ATC) is a crucial component of Earth’s climate and profoundly influences its phenology and ecosystem dynamics. However, most previous studies on ATC amplitude have been confined to the post-industrial instrumental period. Although a few studies have reconstructed ATC amplitudes over the past few centuries using proxy data, these efforts have been limited to regional scales, leaving the global profile of ATC amplitude from the pre- to post-industrial periods poorly understood. Here, leveraging rigorous evaluation and screening of monthly mean air temperature data derived from eleven CMIP5/CMIP6 models spanning the last millennium, combined with grid-based weighted averaging, we produced reliable ATC amplitude series for global and hemispheric land areas since 850 CE. Our analysis reveals a significant reduction in ATC amplitude since the 1860s across global and Northern Hemispheric lands, whereas the Southern Hemisphere has been relatively stable. The unprecedented decline in ATC amplitude since the late 19th century stands in stark contrast to the modest increases observed during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (ca. 1000–1300 CE) and the Little Ice Age (ca. 1400–1850 CE). These findings, particularly the distinct shift in ATC amplitude between the pre- and post-industrial periods, provide an early global fingerprint of anthropogenic forcing on climate change.