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<p>Tropical cyclones (TCs) have profound impacts on socioeconomic conditions and pose substantial risks to lives and property. However, it is still unclear whether the multi-timescale changes in TC activity over the past 2000 years in the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) were regulated by Asian dust forcing. Here, we assessed the impact of Asian dust on TC activity using observational data and reconstructed records from the northern and southern NWP. Our correlation analysis of instrumental data from 1954 to 2017 reveals no significant relationship between observed TC activity and Asian dust forcing. Furthermore, we found a meridional dipole pattern of TC variation across the NWP in observations and reconstructions. These finding challenges current explanations that are based on the synchronous changes in TC activity and Asian dust forcing. Alternatively, we propose that the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) plays a crucial role in driving these meridional dipole patterns in TC variations, as supported by observations and reconstructions. The southwestward extension of an enhanced WPSH intensifies easterly flow, steering TCs westward along its southern edge. This leads to more TC activity in the southern NWP but less in the north, and vice versa when the WPSH is weakened. With the expected strengthening of the WPSH due to global warming, it is vital to consider its impact on NWP TC activity for effective risk-mitigation strategies.</p>

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Assessing Common Era impacts of Asian dust on tropical cyclone changes in the Northwestern Pacific

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月8日

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  • Zhitong Chen,
  • Wengang Kang,
  • Jianbao Liu

摘要

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have profound impacts on socioeconomic conditions and pose substantial risks to lives and property. However, it is still unclear whether the multi-timescale changes in TC activity over the past 2000 years in the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) were regulated by Asian dust forcing. Here, we assessed the impact of Asian dust on TC activity using observational data and reconstructed records from the northern and southern NWP. Our correlation analysis of instrumental data from 1954 to 2017 reveals no significant relationship between observed TC activity and Asian dust forcing. Furthermore, we found a meridional dipole pattern of TC variation across the NWP in observations and reconstructions. These finding challenges current explanations that are based on the synchronous changes in TC activity and Asian dust forcing. Alternatively, we propose that the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) plays a crucial role in driving these meridional dipole patterns in TC variations, as supported by observations and reconstructions. The southwestward extension of an enhanced WPSH intensifies easterly flow, steering TCs westward along its southern edge. This leads to more TC activity in the southern NWP but less in the north, and vice versa when the WPSH is weakened. With the expected strengthening of the WPSH due to global warming, it is vital to consider its impact on NWP TC activity for effective risk-mitigation strategies.