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<p>Against the backdrop of global warming, snow drought events have occurred frequently in Xinjiang in recent decades, posing severe threats to agricultural and pastoral ecosystems. Based on ERA5 reanalysis data, the Long-term Series of Daily Snow Depth Dataset in China, and CMIP6 climate projections, this study systematically investigates the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and evolutionary characteristics of typical snow droughts in Xinjiang during 1980–2021. The results indicate that snow droughts in Xinjiang exhibit pronounced temporal clustering. Prior to 2000, dry-only snow droughts occurred more frequently, whereas since 2000, warm-dry snow droughts have increased markedly. Meanwhile, the frequency of warm-only snow droughts has relatively declined. Snow droughts also exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity. The Kunlun Mountains experience the highest frequency of snow droughts and are projected to experience higher snow drought risk in the future. In addition, this study identifies cold snow droughts driven primarily by snow sublimation, highlighting a distinct mechanism for snow drought formation in the high-altitude regions of Xinjiang. With continued warming, the risk of snow drought in Xinjiang is projected to intensify by 2100. Warm-dry snow droughts are expected to become more frequent, whereas dry-only snow droughts are projected to decrease. Overall, this study elucidates the formation processes and coupled thermal-hydrological mechanisms of different snow drought types, providing a scientific basis for snow drought prediction and mitigation in Xinjiang.</p>

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Classification, heterogeneity, and evolution of snow drought in Xinjiang under climate warming

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月24日

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  • Hong Zhu,
  • Peng Cui,
  • Yan Wang,
  • Jiansheng Hao,
  • Guoqing Chen,
  • Changgui Lin,
  • Lanhai Li

摘要

Against the backdrop of global warming, snow drought events have occurred frequently in Xinjiang in recent decades, posing severe threats to agricultural and pastoral ecosystems. Based on ERA5 reanalysis data, the Long-term Series of Daily Snow Depth Dataset in China, and CMIP6 climate projections, this study systematically investigates the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and evolutionary characteristics of typical snow droughts in Xinjiang during 1980–2021. The results indicate that snow droughts in Xinjiang exhibit pronounced temporal clustering. Prior to 2000, dry-only snow droughts occurred more frequently, whereas since 2000, warm-dry snow droughts have increased markedly. Meanwhile, the frequency of warm-only snow droughts has relatively declined. Snow droughts also exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity. The Kunlun Mountains experience the highest frequency of snow droughts and are projected to experience higher snow drought risk in the future. In addition, this study identifies cold snow droughts driven primarily by snow sublimation, highlighting a distinct mechanism for snow drought formation in the high-altitude regions of Xinjiang. With continued warming, the risk of snow drought in Xinjiang is projected to intensify by 2100. Warm-dry snow droughts are expected to become more frequent, whereas dry-only snow droughts are projected to decrease. Overall, this study elucidates the formation processes and coupled thermal-hydrological mechanisms of different snow drought types, providing a scientific basis for snow drought prediction and mitigation in Xinjiang.