<p>The redbeds in China cover approximately 20% of the land area and are highly vulnerable to ecological degradation. Current research on ecological degradation in redbeds primarily focuses on isolated issues such as desertification, soil erosion, or vegetation degradation. The findings exhibit strong regional specificity and thus cannot yet reflect the nationwide trends in ecological degradation of China’s redbeds and regional variations in their characteristics. This study employs GIS and geostatistical methods to assess the ecological degradation in China’s redbeds from 2010 to 2022, using long-term vegetation, climate, and population data. Results show severe ecological degradation in the northwest, southwest, and southeast, with regional variations in driving factors: temperature, rainfall, and population density are key in most regions, but rainfall dominates in the southeast. By 2120, population density is projected to decline significantly in the northwest, southeast, and southwest, while the northern region may face a water resource crisis. Ecological degradation is expected to decrease in the northwest and north, remain stable in the southwest, but increase by 38.5% in the southeast under the assumption of current trends and dominant factor influences remaining constant. This study provides a novel methodology for national-regional assessment of ecological degradation in redbeds, supporting targeted conservation strategies. These projections are subject to uncertainties stemming from future climate variability, policy interventions, and socioeconomic development pathways.</p>