<p>Variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) profoundly affects the large population of South Asia, exerting substantial socioeconomic impacts. However, its prediction remains challenging, partly due to our incomplete understanding of its physical drivers. As the dominant interannual climate variability mode in the tropical Atlantic, Atlantic Niño can suppress the ISM rainfall (ISMR) through atmospheric teleconnections. Furthermore, a recent study has identified two types of Atlantic Niño with warming centered in the central and eastern basins, respectively. Combining observational analysis and numerical experiments, we investigate their distinct influences on the ISMR. Results show that the Eastern Atlantic Niño (EAN) excites extratropical Rossby waves, inducing a west-east rainfall dipole anomaly over North India. In contrast, the Central Atlantic Niño (CAN) primarily induces easterly wind anomalies in the tropics and weakens the Indian monsoon trough, resulting in a meridional tripole rainfall pattern. The recent marked weakening of the EAN and changing mean state have allowed the CAN to emerge as the dominant driver of the Atlantic Niño’s remote influence on ISMR. Furthermore, since the CAN is closely linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the emergence of the CAN-ISMR connection may partly explain the recovery in the ENSO-ISMR correlation since around 2000. These findings underscore the importance of distinguishing between the two types of Atlantic Niño in order to improve predictions of the ISM.</p>

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Roles of central and eastern Atlantic Niño in the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon

  • Yaqi Jin,
  • Lei Zhang,
  • Fred Kucharski

摘要

Variability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) profoundly affects the large population of South Asia, exerting substantial socioeconomic impacts. However, its prediction remains challenging, partly due to our incomplete understanding of its physical drivers. As the dominant interannual climate variability mode in the tropical Atlantic, Atlantic Niño can suppress the ISM rainfall (ISMR) through atmospheric teleconnections. Furthermore, a recent study has identified two types of Atlantic Niño with warming centered in the central and eastern basins, respectively. Combining observational analysis and numerical experiments, we investigate their distinct influences on the ISMR. Results show that the Eastern Atlantic Niño (EAN) excites extratropical Rossby waves, inducing a west-east rainfall dipole anomaly over North India. In contrast, the Central Atlantic Niño (CAN) primarily induces easterly wind anomalies in the tropics and weakens the Indian monsoon trough, resulting in a meridional tripole rainfall pattern. The recent marked weakening of the EAN and changing mean state have allowed the CAN to emerge as the dominant driver of the Atlantic Niño’s remote influence on ISMR. Furthermore, since the CAN is closely linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the emergence of the CAN-ISMR connection may partly explain the recovery in the ENSO-ISMR correlation since around 2000. These findings underscore the importance of distinguishing between the two types of Atlantic Niño in order to improve predictions of the ISM.