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<p>Drought is a significant climatic hazard that is increasingly exacerbated under global warming, posing considerable adverse impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and agriculture. As a proposed climate intervention method, marine cloud brightening (MCB) has the potential to mitigate some undesired climate impacts of anthropogenic warming. Here, we conduct ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model to investigate the response of terrestrial drought to MCB. In our simulations, MCB is implemented in three subtropical ocean regions under the background scenario of SSP2-4.5. In our simulation design, MCB deployed over 12% area of the global ocean would produce a global mean cooling of 0.9 °C relative to SSP2-4.5 by the end of this century. Our analysis shows that during the 21st century, compared with SSP2-4.5, overall, MCB-induced cooling would mitigate global land drying trend as measured by the response of SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index). The mitigation occurs mainly due to MCB-induced decrease in land potential evapotranspiration. Simulation analysis also shows that relative to SSP2-4.5, MCB would mitigate multiple drought stresses over large parts of the continents, including the drought intensity, severity, frequency, affected area, as well as duration and occurrence for sustained drought events. For example, under MCB, global land mean drought intensity, severity, and frequency would reduce by 6.6%, 20.4%, and 15.3% relative to those of SSP2-4.5 by the end of this century, respectively. Further analysis shows that if MCB-induced cooling fully offsets SSP2-4.5-induced global mean warming, for a majority of tropical and subtropical regions, warming-induced increase in drought stress could be fully/partially offset or overcompensated by MCB. For a few regions, such as some areas in Eurasia and South America, MCB would exacerbate the projected increase in drought stress under SSP2-4.5, indicating the complexity involved in the regional drought response to MCB. Our study demonstrates the potential effect of MCB on global land drought. Further studies are needed to better understand drought response to different implementation strategies of MCB, which should be an important consideration for a comprehensive assessment of climate effect of MCB.</p>

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Simulated response of global terrestrial drought to regional deployment of marine cloud brightening

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月16日

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  • Jiu Jiang,
  • Yu Fang,
  • Long Cao,
  • Xiaojing Yu

摘要

Drought is a significant climatic hazard that is increasingly exacerbated under global warming, posing considerable adverse impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and agriculture. As a proposed climate intervention method, marine cloud brightening (MCB) has the potential to mitigate some undesired climate impacts of anthropogenic warming. Here, we conduct ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model to investigate the response of terrestrial drought to MCB. In our simulations, MCB is implemented in three subtropical ocean regions under the background scenario of SSP2-4.5. In our simulation design, MCB deployed over 12% area of the global ocean would produce a global mean cooling of 0.9 °C relative to SSP2-4.5 by the end of this century. Our analysis shows that during the 21st century, compared with SSP2-4.5, overall, MCB-induced cooling would mitigate global land drying trend as measured by the response of SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index). The mitigation occurs mainly due to MCB-induced decrease in land potential evapotranspiration. Simulation analysis also shows that relative to SSP2-4.5, MCB would mitigate multiple drought stresses over large parts of the continents, including the drought intensity, severity, frequency, affected area, as well as duration and occurrence for sustained drought events. For example, under MCB, global land mean drought intensity, severity, and frequency would reduce by 6.6%, 20.4%, and 15.3% relative to those of SSP2-4.5 by the end of this century, respectively. Further analysis shows that if MCB-induced cooling fully offsets SSP2-4.5-induced global mean warming, for a majority of tropical and subtropical regions, warming-induced increase in drought stress could be fully/partially offset or overcompensated by MCB. For a few regions, such as some areas in Eurasia and South America, MCB would exacerbate the projected increase in drought stress under SSP2-4.5, indicating the complexity involved in the regional drought response to MCB. Our study demonstrates the potential effect of MCB on global land drought. Further studies are needed to better understand drought response to different implementation strategies of MCB, which should be an important consideration for a comprehensive assessment of climate effect of MCB.