<p>Long-term tidal records are essential for understanding sea-level changes and managing coastal flood risk. While most studies focused on the recent four decades, centennial-scale analyses remain limited. In this contribution, we assemble and reconstruct tidal height data at the Wusong gauge in the Yangtze Estuary between 1912 and 2024, based on the correction of land subsidence and datum change. Data analyses indicate that land subsidence is the primary cause of data discrepancy, with a cumulative subsidence up to approximately 1.28 m. The mean sea level rise rate is 1.89 mm a<sup>−1</sup> for 1912–2024 and increased to 2.16 mm a<sup>−1</sup> for 1972–2024, suggesting accelerated sea level rise. This rate is lower than that at the offshore gauge Dajishan, suggesting a damped rising rate within the estuary due to river discharge and tidal oscillations. In addition, the annually maximum tide levels rise at a rate of 7.62 mm a<sup>−1</sup> since 1963, three times larger than the rate of mean sea level rise, implying escalating extreme water levels and subsequent flood risks. These results provide a reference for studies of centennial sea level changes in China, and have implications for flood risk management in the Huangpu River and construction of a tidal barrier at Wusong.</p>

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Centennial mean and maximal sea level changes at Wusong in the Yangtze Estuary

  • Saiyin Hu,
  • Leicheng Guo,
  • Chunyan Zhu,
  • Weiming Xie,
  • Qing He,
  • Zhilin Lu

摘要

Long-term tidal records are essential for understanding sea-level changes and managing coastal flood risk. While most studies focused on the recent four decades, centennial-scale analyses remain limited. In this contribution, we assemble and reconstruct tidal height data at the Wusong gauge in the Yangtze Estuary between 1912 and 2024, based on the correction of land subsidence and datum change. Data analyses indicate that land subsidence is the primary cause of data discrepancy, with a cumulative subsidence up to approximately 1.28 m. The mean sea level rise rate is 1.89 mm a−1 for 1912–2024 and increased to 2.16 mm a−1 for 1972–2024, suggesting accelerated sea level rise. This rate is lower than that at the offshore gauge Dajishan, suggesting a damped rising rate within the estuary due to river discharge and tidal oscillations. In addition, the annually maximum tide levels rise at a rate of 7.62 mm a−1 since 1963, three times larger than the rate of mean sea level rise, implying escalating extreme water levels and subsequent flood risks. These results provide a reference for studies of centennial sea level changes in China, and have implications for flood risk management in the Huangpu River and construction of a tidal barrier at Wusong.