Disillusionment and rebirth of deterministic weather forecasting and climate prediction: A perspective on the Lorenz’s chaos theory
摘要
The deterministic chaos in nonlinear systems was discovered by Edward N. Lorenz in 1963, marking the birth of nonlinear sciences. Since then, the sensitivity of predictions to initial conditions is characterized by the “butterfly effect”, triggering a scientific revolution that has lasted more than half a century and spans multiple disciplines. This article presents a perspective on the classic paper of the “butterfly effect”, which not only help reveal how pioneers challenged the infinite unknown under limited conditions to establish the foundational work, but also demonstrates how these seminal ideas inspired successors to transcend existing paradigms, unlock creative thinking, and achieve cross-disciplinary innovations. The Lorenz’s theory of deterministic chaos reveals that even imperceptibly small errors in the initial state can grow to the extent that makes it impossible to forecast at arbitrary future times with acceptable errors. This recognition shook the classical physics view that “determinism implies complete predictability” and prompted meteorologists to shift from the pursuit of “long-term forecasts” to asking “how far into the future the atmosphere is predictable”, and from attempts at “perfect prediction” to scientifically “quantifying forecast uncertainty”. This transition has also fundamentally promoted the shift of the paradigms in weather forecast and subsequent climate prediction, exerted profound influence on mathematics, biology and economics, and even permeated literature, art, history and social governance—ultimately shaping the renowned Lorenz’s chaos theory.