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<p>International agreements such as <i>the Paris Agreement</i> encourage developed countries to diffuse renewable energy technologies to developing nations at different stages of the technology lifecycle, aiding the latter in mitigating and adapting to global climate change. This study constructs a big-data map of 322,761 solar technology patent diffusions among 175 countries from 1970 to 2022. By employing innovative multi-layer community network models, key technology identification frameworks, and main path analysis, we analyze the network characteristics, community patterns, and evolutionary pathways of global solar technology diffusions. The findings reveal: (1) Global solar technology has transitioned from rapid growth to maturity, with post-2011 technological inventions declining by 41.12%. (2) The hub function of technology diffusion has shifted from centralization to decentralization. Developed countries’ influence in technology diffusion has weakened, while China’s role in the Global South has strengthened. (3) The US has maintained a monopoly in both critical and general technology diffusion since 1970. Post-2011, China has established regional influence in low-barrier general technology diffusion. (4) Main path analysis of technology evolution shows that the US and Japan dominate 51.23% and 32.71% of key nodes in the 10 major technology clusters, respectively, while China accounts for only 10.12%. Technology importation, absorption, and re-innovation in battery modules and power generation systems are China’s primary pathways to shape global influence. This study provides an objective understanding of China’s global impact in solar technology development, cautioning against over-optimism based solely on market dominance.</p>

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Mapping global solar technology diffusion and its pathways over the past 50 years

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月24日

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  • Yu Yang,
  • Xiaoying Qian,
  • Lu Zhang,
  • Haiping Zhang,
  • Siyou Xia,
  • Yan Cheng

摘要

International agreements such as the Paris Agreement encourage developed countries to diffuse renewable energy technologies to developing nations at different stages of the technology lifecycle, aiding the latter in mitigating and adapting to global climate change. This study constructs a big-data map of 322,761 solar technology patent diffusions among 175 countries from 1970 to 2022. By employing innovative multi-layer community network models, key technology identification frameworks, and main path analysis, we analyze the network characteristics, community patterns, and evolutionary pathways of global solar technology diffusions. The findings reveal: (1) Global solar technology has transitioned from rapid growth to maturity, with post-2011 technological inventions declining by 41.12%. (2) The hub function of technology diffusion has shifted from centralization to decentralization. Developed countries’ influence in technology diffusion has weakened, while China’s role in the Global South has strengthened. (3) The US has maintained a monopoly in both critical and general technology diffusion since 1970. Post-2011, China has established regional influence in low-barrier general technology diffusion. (4) Main path analysis of technology evolution shows that the US and Japan dominate 51.23% and 32.71% of key nodes in the 10 major technology clusters, respectively, while China accounts for only 10.12%. Technology importation, absorption, and re-innovation in battery modules and power generation systems are China’s primary pathways to shape global influence. This study provides an objective understanding of China’s global impact in solar technology development, cautioning against over-optimism based solely on market dominance.