Spatially explicit adaptation characteristics of urban development and construction across China over the past three decades
摘要
Scientifically assessing the suitability, safety and resilience of urban development is the premise for high-quality regional development in China. Here we developed a high-precision coupling model for comprehensive assessing the spatially explicit adaptation, and livability and safety of urban development, based on urban expansion and nine types of natural disaster risks data in 1990–2020. Through remote sensing and big data mining methods, we revealed spatial differentiation characteristics of urban development’s spatial adaptation and livability safety levels over the past three decades, diagnosing the expansion status of cities at varying potential safety risk levels. The results indicate that urban development was primarily concentrated in medium to high suitability level areas (83.23%, 5.23×104 km2) from 1990 to 2020, with 14.46% of urban expansion occurring in the lowest suitability areas, predominantly in the eastern coastal and western regions. From the safety aspect, urban development predominantly occurred in areas with medium to highest safety levels (49%), yet 13% of urban expansion areas exhibit relatively high safety risks. In the eastern coastal regions, the primary threat is water-related risks, with urban expansion in these risk areas accounting for 62% of total expansion. The western region is mainly threatened by geological earthquake risks, with urban expansion area in these risk zones exceeding by more than four times of that in the eastern, central, and northeastern regions. The central region is primarily at risk from high-temperature disaster, while the northeastern region faces risks from low-temperature and snow-related disasters. Overall, urban development in China over the past three decades has displayed a pattern of the high-suitability and high-expansion in the eastern regions, medium-suitability and medium-speed expansion in the central region, low-suitability and low-expansion in the western region, and the high-suitability and slow-expansion in the northeastern region. This study provides scientific guidance for the “Beautiful China” initiative, facilitating the precise adaptation of high-quality regional development and resilient urban safety, and promoting the coordinated development of differentiated regional socioeconomic and ecological systems.