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<p>Low-frequency signals play an important role in understanding sea level changes and their acceleration. This paper analyzed multidecadal oscillations on a global scale with tide gauge records. A significant stable oscillation of approximately 64 years was identified at 177 globally distributed tide gauges, with an estimated period of 63±4 yr. The amplitude of this oscillation depends on latitude, whereas the phase depends on longitude. The regions most affected (up to ~20 mm) by the 64-yr oscillation include Europe, North America, South Australia, and East Asia. Our results are consistent with the spherical harmonic model, indicating that the 64-yr oscillation is not a random or irregular signal but rather a global signal likely excited by a specific source. To explore the possible excitation sources, we analyzed several external factors closely related to sea level change (where “external” refers to factors relative to the Earth’s interior), including thermosteric sea level, ocean mass change, precipitation, sea level pressure, surface temperature, sunspot numbers, solar flux, and the total solar irradiance index. Our results show that there are significant differences in the periods, amplitudes and phases of the multidecadal characteristics of these datasets from those of the 64-yr oscillation; thus the existence of the 64-yr oscillation was denied in these datasets. Therefore, we firstly confirm that climate change and solar activity cannot explain the 64-yr sea level oscillation.</p>

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The global 64-year sea level oscillation and its possible external excitation sources

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月17日

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  • Mingyu Xiao,
  • Taoyong Jin,
  • Hao Ding,
  • Lianjun Yang,
  • Xiaolong Li,
  • Jiancheng Li

摘要

Low-frequency signals play an important role in understanding sea level changes and their acceleration. This paper analyzed multidecadal oscillations on a global scale with tide gauge records. A significant stable oscillation of approximately 64 years was identified at 177 globally distributed tide gauges, with an estimated period of 63±4 yr. The amplitude of this oscillation depends on latitude, whereas the phase depends on longitude. The regions most affected (up to ~20 mm) by the 64-yr oscillation include Europe, North America, South Australia, and East Asia. Our results are consistent with the spherical harmonic model, indicating that the 64-yr oscillation is not a random or irregular signal but rather a global signal likely excited by a specific source. To explore the possible excitation sources, we analyzed several external factors closely related to sea level change (where “external” refers to factors relative to the Earth’s interior), including thermosteric sea level, ocean mass change, precipitation, sea level pressure, surface temperature, sunspot numbers, solar flux, and the total solar irradiance index. Our results show that there are significant differences in the periods, amplitudes and phases of the multidecadal characteristics of these datasets from those of the 64-yr oscillation; thus the existence of the 64-yr oscillation was denied in these datasets. Therefore, we firstly confirm that climate change and solar activity cannot explain the 64-yr sea level oscillation.