Contagion of commodity futures price bubbles: perspectives from futures-level sentiment contagion
摘要
The volatility in Chinese commodity futures markets has raised concerns about price bubbles and their contagion phenomena. This study explores these contagion phenomena from the novel perspective of futures-level sentiment contagion. It confirms the presence of commodity futures price bubble contagion by using a seemingly unrelated regression model and analyses their time-varying characteristics by using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive DY (TVP-VAR-DY) model. A two-layer network framework is employed to highlight the significant superposition effect between futures-level sentiment contagion and contagion of these bubbles. Our findings also demonstrate the positive role of futures-level sentiment contagion in the contagion of commodity futures price bubbles. Moreover, optimistic and pessimistic futures-level sentiment contagion have distinct impacts, and a quantile-on-quantile regression analysis shows that these impacts vary across different quantiles. Notably, during crisis periods, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of futures-level sentiment contagion shifts from significantly positive to significantly negative. Additionally, while futures-level sentiment contagion significantly amplifies the short-term contagion of commodity futures price bubbles, it has an insignificant long-term impact. Overall, this study provides robust evidence of the substantial influence of futures-level sentiment contagion on the contagion of commodity futures price bubbles.