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Purpose <p>Given the growing urgency of global climate change and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15.3 to achieve global land degradation neutrality by 2030, it is essential to comprehensively investigate the primary drivers of land degradation in drylands. Xinjiang, the largest arid region in China, is severely affected by soil erosion. This erosion results from the interaction of multiple climatic and anthropogenic factors and poses a serious threat to regional ecological security. Consequently, this research aims to comprehensively evaluate the recent temporal evolution of regional soil erosion and to elucidate the underlying interactive mechanisms driving these dynamics.</p> Materials and methods <p>This research integrates official soil erosion statistics with multi-source remote sensing covariates to construct a time-series database. The relative roles of climatic variability and anthropogenic factors are quantitatively disentangled using variance partitioning analysis (VPA).</p> Results and discussion <p>The results showed a clear trend of erosion mitigation in the study area, with the total eroded area shrinking by an average of approximately 0.49% per year. Wind erosion and water erosion areas decreased by 0.48% and 0.61% per year, respectively. Variance partitioning analysis (VPA) indicates that climate variability and soil and water conservation measures each independently accounted for 12% of the variance in soil erosion, while their interaction explains 68%, highlighting the dominance of synergistic effects. Additionally, improved soil conservation practices exhibited a significant negative correlation with erosion severity and contributed to diminished PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations, implying an ancillary role in enhancing air quality.</p> Conclusions <p>This research proposes a comprehensive causal chain analysis framework for evaluating soil erosion risk in arid ecosystems, following the logical sequence of ‘Driving Factors → Response Processes → Impact Outcomes’. Besides, the findings underscore the need for integrated management strategies that explicitly account for the complex interactions between anthropogenic factors and climate variability.</p>

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Synergistic effects of climate variability and conservation efforts on soil erosion dynamics in Xinjiang (2011–2024)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月14日

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  • Rongbin Li,
  • Qilong Tian,
  • Xiaoping Zhang,
  • Jianjun Yang,
  • Fang Yang,
  • Qianqian Ma,
  • Jiaqi Chen,
  • Yuheng Zhao

摘要

Purpose

Given the growing urgency of global climate change and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15.3 to achieve global land degradation neutrality by 2030, it is essential to comprehensively investigate the primary drivers of land degradation in drylands. Xinjiang, the largest arid region in China, is severely affected by soil erosion. This erosion results from the interaction of multiple climatic and anthropogenic factors and poses a serious threat to regional ecological security. Consequently, this research aims to comprehensively evaluate the recent temporal evolution of regional soil erosion and to elucidate the underlying interactive mechanisms driving these dynamics.

Materials and methods

This research integrates official soil erosion statistics with multi-source remote sensing covariates to construct a time-series database. The relative roles of climatic variability and anthropogenic factors are quantitatively disentangled using variance partitioning analysis (VPA).

Results and discussion

The results showed a clear trend of erosion mitigation in the study area, with the total eroded area shrinking by an average of approximately 0.49% per year. Wind erosion and water erosion areas decreased by 0.48% and 0.61% per year, respectively. Variance partitioning analysis (VPA) indicates that climate variability and soil and water conservation measures each independently accounted for 12% of the variance in soil erosion, while their interaction explains 68%, highlighting the dominance of synergistic effects. Additionally, improved soil conservation practices exhibited a significant negative correlation with erosion severity and contributed to diminished PM2.5 concentrations, implying an ancillary role in enhancing air quality.

Conclusions

This research proposes a comprehensive causal chain analysis framework for evaluating soil erosion risk in arid ecosystems, following the logical sequence of ‘Driving Factors → Response Processes → Impact Outcomes’. Besides, the findings underscore the need for integrated management strategies that explicitly account for the complex interactions between anthropogenic factors and climate variability.