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Purpose <p>The climate change impact in LCA typically considers only the well mixed, direct greenhouse gases (GHG). The objective of this research is to include new climate forcers and effects in dynamic LCA, according to the climate science evolution, and to make them available and operational for the LCA users. The CCI-tool was used and complemented with these new elements.</p> Methods <p>First, the available data and knowledge on short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) was compiled from IPCC reports and from recommended literature by IPCC, and translated in a model based on the concept of impulse response function (IRF) for the radiative forcing (RF). The SLCFs included are: (1) aerosols and precursors: SO<sub>2</sub>, organic carbon, black carbon, particulate matter; (2) ozone precursors (indirect GHGs): NOx, CO, volatile organic compounds; (3) other indirect: H<sub>2</sub>. Differentiation was made for aviation emissions and shipping emissions. Second, the carbon cycle climate feedback was integrated in the model and allocated to each climate forcer.</p> Results and discussion <p>The model was validated by calculating the GWP20, 100, and GTP20, 100 for the SLCFs and comparing with the available data in the literature. The RF and global mean temperature change (GMTC) were calculated for all SLCFs for a 1&#xa0;kg pulse emission and presented for discussion. Two simple case studies were performed on: (1) aviation emissions for a one-way long-hole flight and for a 1-year daily flights; (2) wood combustion. The examples demonstrate the relevance of considering the SLCF effect especially at short term (0–20 years after emission), with higher peaks on temperature than CO<sub>2</sub>. Uncertainties on physical parameters were used to evaluate the minimum and maximum GMTC, and confirm the behaviors observed in both case studies.</p> Conclusions <p>This is the first implementation of SLCFs in a dynamic LCA tool, for climate change impact calculation. Moreover, the model was updated with the carbon-cycle climate feedback effect. The CCI-tool is well adapted to such improvements, especially for dynamic impact calculation. The results obtained on simple impulse emissions or on case studies corroborate the data and conclusions from the climate science literature.</p>

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Expanding the dynamic climate change impact model for dynamic LCA based on the climate science

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月11日

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  • Ligia Tiruta-Barna

摘要

Purpose

The climate change impact in LCA typically considers only the well mixed, direct greenhouse gases (GHG). The objective of this research is to include new climate forcers and effects in dynamic LCA, according to the climate science evolution, and to make them available and operational for the LCA users. The CCI-tool was used and complemented with these new elements.

Methods

First, the available data and knowledge on short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) was compiled from IPCC reports and from recommended literature by IPCC, and translated in a model based on the concept of impulse response function (IRF) for the radiative forcing (RF). The SLCFs included are: (1) aerosols and precursors: SO2, organic carbon, black carbon, particulate matter; (2) ozone precursors (indirect GHGs): NOx, CO, volatile organic compounds; (3) other indirect: H2. Differentiation was made for aviation emissions and shipping emissions. Second, the carbon cycle climate feedback was integrated in the model and allocated to each climate forcer.

Results and discussion

The model was validated by calculating the GWP20, 100, and GTP20, 100 for the SLCFs and comparing with the available data in the literature. The RF and global mean temperature change (GMTC) were calculated for all SLCFs for a 1 kg pulse emission and presented for discussion. Two simple case studies were performed on: (1) aviation emissions for a one-way long-hole flight and for a 1-year daily flights; (2) wood combustion. The examples demonstrate the relevance of considering the SLCF effect especially at short term (0–20 years after emission), with higher peaks on temperature than CO2. Uncertainties on physical parameters were used to evaluate the minimum and maximum GMTC, and confirm the behaviors observed in both case studies.

Conclusions

This is the first implementation of SLCFs in a dynamic LCA tool, for climate change impact calculation. Moreover, the model was updated with the carbon-cycle climate feedback effect. The CCI-tool is well adapted to such improvements, especially for dynamic impact calculation. The results obtained on simple impulse emissions or on case studies corroborate the data and conclusions from the climate science literature.