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<p>This study provides a systematic examination of how the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—formally introduced in 2013 as a large-scale, cross-continental development strategy—has generated diverse effects on the economic performance of participating countries through multidimensional linkages across political, economic, security, and technological domains. To address the limitations of prior research that has primarily focused on a single dimension (e.g., infrastructure, trade, or finance) and overlooked the wide-ranging security and institutional contexts, we select 149 countries that substantially joined or signed BRI agreements between 2013 and 2022. We enhance the credibility of causal identification using a multiperiod difference-in-differences (DID) approach, a quasi-experimental method comparing changes over time in treatment and control groups, along with alternative measures, subgroup regressions, and multiple robustness checks. The results show that economic and technological linkages more immediately and significantly boost GDP growth, whereas political and security linkages require deeper institutional capacity and social stability to yield long-term growth outcomes. Governance capacity and political regime critically shape how exogenous linkages drive industrial upgrading and social welfare: countries with higher governance standards and more stable political environments more readily convert external BRI resources into sustainable competitiveness, while those with weak governance or recurring conflicts risk structural dependence or resource misallocation. This research not only supplies detailed empirical evidence on how the BRI addresses multifaceted goals under multipolar competition—defined here as a global context where multiple major powers exert influence—but it also expands the international political economy literature regarding the interplay of external power linkages and institutional resilience. Additionally, it offers valuable insights for academics and policymakers seeking to balance cross-border cooperation with endogenous reforms.</p>

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The Belt and Road Initiative and National Economic Development: a Multidimensional Power Analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月2日

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  • Mengshuang Du

摘要

This study provides a systematic examination of how the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—formally introduced in 2013 as a large-scale, cross-continental development strategy—has generated diverse effects on the economic performance of participating countries through multidimensional linkages across political, economic, security, and technological domains. To address the limitations of prior research that has primarily focused on a single dimension (e.g., infrastructure, trade, or finance) and overlooked the wide-ranging security and institutional contexts, we select 149 countries that substantially joined or signed BRI agreements between 2013 and 2022. We enhance the credibility of causal identification using a multiperiod difference-in-differences (DID) approach, a quasi-experimental method comparing changes over time in treatment and control groups, along with alternative measures, subgroup regressions, and multiple robustness checks. The results show that economic and technological linkages more immediately and significantly boost GDP growth, whereas political and security linkages require deeper institutional capacity and social stability to yield long-term growth outcomes. Governance capacity and political regime critically shape how exogenous linkages drive industrial upgrading and social welfare: countries with higher governance standards and more stable political environments more readily convert external BRI resources into sustainable competitiveness, while those with weak governance or recurring conflicts risk structural dependence or resource misallocation. This research not only supplies detailed empirical evidence on how the BRI addresses multifaceted goals under multipolar competition—defined here as a global context where multiple major powers exert influence—but it also expands the international political economy literature regarding the interplay of external power linkages and institutional resilience. Additionally, it offers valuable insights for academics and policymakers seeking to balance cross-border cooperation with endogenous reforms.