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<p>A comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem service (ES) availability and use is essential for effective management and equitable urban development globally. This study used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model to evaluate the supply–demand relationships of water conservation, soil conservation, carbon storage, and habitat quality in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2020. Spatial mismatches under three land-use scenarios—natural development (NDS), urban development (UDS), and ecological protection (EPS)—were also simulated using the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model to predict landscape changes. The results showed a consistent increase in ES demand alongside a decline in supply with a significant supply–demand imbalance observed for all services except soil conservation. Additionally, spatial variations in ES supply and demand were evident across the three scenarios, with the EPS scenario providing the highest level of ES supply compared to NDS and UDS. These findings provide a scientific basis for urban planning and sustainable development in Guangzhou and comparable cities worldwide.</p>

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Spatio-temporal variations in the supply and demand of ecosystem services with multi-scenario prediction in Guangzhou City, China

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月1日

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  • Jun Wu,
  • Zhi-Yun Jiang,
  • Yan-Yu Xu,
  • Lin Lin,
  • Rong Guo,
  • Yi-Jia Wang

摘要

A comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem service (ES) availability and use is essential for effective management and equitable urban development globally. This study used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model to evaluate the supply–demand relationships of water conservation, soil conservation, carbon storage, and habitat quality in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2020. Spatial mismatches under three land-use scenarios—natural development (NDS), urban development (UDS), and ecological protection (EPS)—were also simulated using the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model to predict landscape changes. The results showed a consistent increase in ES demand alongside a decline in supply with a significant supply–demand imbalance observed for all services except soil conservation. Additionally, spatial variations in ES supply and demand were evident across the three scenarios, with the EPS scenario providing the highest level of ES supply compared to NDS and UDS. These findings provide a scientific basis for urban planning and sustainable development in Guangzhou and comparable cities worldwide.