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<p>The livestock sector holds a prominent position among Brazilian economic sectors; however, beef production is linked to noteworthy environmental impacts, including deforestation and greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions. In alignment with the Paris Agreement, Brazil aims to reduce GHG emissions by 43% by 2030 as part of its NDC commitment. This study aims to elucidate the nexus between beef production and emissions from beef cattle, providing an assessment of predictive GHG emission scenarios for 2030, and an economic valuation of these emissions utilizing the social cost of carbon (SCC). Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, GHG emissions from beef production are estimated to range between 0.42–0.63 GtCO<sub>2</sub>e in 2030. Conversely, meeting the Brazilian Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) target requires limiting emissions to 0.26 GtCO<sub>2</sub>e. The SCC analysis unveils a potential cost reductions ranging from US $18.8 to $42.6 billion in 2030, contingent upon achieving the NDC. Furthermore, a strategic assessment considering climate targets and prioritizing beef exports envisions a domestic market availability of 2–10&#xa0;kg of beef per capita in 2030. This study highlight the critical need for transformative adjustments in livestock production methods to reduce GHG emissions per unit of beef yield, with a focus on the economic advantages of emission mitigation.</p>

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Brazilian beef production and GHG emission – social cost of carbon and perspectives for climate change mitigation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月5日

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  • Mariana Vieira da Costa,
  • Daniela Debone,
  • Simone Georges El Khouri Miraglia

摘要

The livestock sector holds a prominent position among Brazilian economic sectors; however, beef production is linked to noteworthy environmental impacts, including deforestation and greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions. In alignment with the Paris Agreement, Brazil aims to reduce GHG emissions by 43% by 2030 as part of its NDC commitment. This study aims to elucidate the nexus between beef production and emissions from beef cattle, providing an assessment of predictive GHG emission scenarios for 2030, and an economic valuation of these emissions utilizing the social cost of carbon (SCC). Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, GHG emissions from beef production are estimated to range between 0.42–0.63 GtCO2e in 2030. Conversely, meeting the Brazilian Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) target requires limiting emissions to 0.26 GtCO2e. The SCC analysis unveils a potential cost reductions ranging from US $18.8 to $42.6 billion in 2030, contingent upon achieving the NDC. Furthermore, a strategic assessment considering climate targets and prioritizing beef exports envisions a domestic market availability of 2–10 kg of beef per capita in 2030. This study highlight the critical need for transformative adjustments in livestock production methods to reduce GHG emissions per unit of beef yield, with a focus on the economic advantages of emission mitigation.