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<p>The western sand lance (<i>Ammodytes japonicus</i>) is a valuable fishery resource in the Seto Inland Sea. Although it survives through summer by estivating, it faces the threat of population decline as seawater temperature increases at an alarming rate due to climate change. We applied data from meta-analyses and laboratory analyses to inform a climate-linked model of predicted survival to determine the impact of climate change on the persistence of <i>A. japonicus</i> through the end of the century. Our results suggest that the mortality rate of <i>A. japonicus</i> during estivation increases with elevated water temperature, and the initial condition factor at the onset of estivation is critical to the survival of estivating <i>A. japonicus</i>. Furthermore, our results indicate that climate change will pose serious challenges to the persistence of the <i>A. japonicus</i> population in the Seto Inland Sea in the twenty-first century if climate change mitigation measures are not implemented and the environmental conditions that promote accumulation of energy reserves in <i>A. japonicus</i> prior to estivation are not improved.</p>

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Climate change impact on the viability of western sand lance during estivation in the Seto Inland Sea

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月15日

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  • Jun-ya Shibata,
  • Yoichi Sakai,
  • Wataru Nishijima

摘要

The western sand lance (Ammodytes japonicus) is a valuable fishery resource in the Seto Inland Sea. Although it survives through summer by estivating, it faces the threat of population decline as seawater temperature increases at an alarming rate due to climate change. We applied data from meta-analyses and laboratory analyses to inform a climate-linked model of predicted survival to determine the impact of climate change on the persistence of A. japonicus through the end of the century. Our results suggest that the mortality rate of A. japonicus during estivation increases with elevated water temperature, and the initial condition factor at the onset of estivation is critical to the survival of estivating A. japonicus. Furthermore, our results indicate that climate change will pose serious challenges to the persistence of the A. japonicus population in the Seto Inland Sea in the twenty-first century if climate change mitigation measures are not implemented and the environmental conditions that promote accumulation of energy reserves in A. japonicus prior to estivation are not improved.