<p>This study employed the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-in-mean model to examine and compare the response of daily stock returns, measured by the TA-125 index from the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, to two scenarios: the ongoing war that began on October 7, 2023 between Israel and Gaza, and the cumulative effect of five Israel-Gaza wars occurring between January 1, 2008 and February 27, 2025, capturing asymmetric volatility responses and persistence effects. Thus, this paper provides a methodological contribution to the literature by using a new approach to evaluate how the Israeli stock market is affected by conflicts and escalations and assesses how the impact of the October 7, 2023 war compares to previous wars between 2008 and 2025. By concentrating on a single but repeatedly affected economy, the paper advances the field of conflict-finance literature toward understanding the cumulative impact of prolonged geopolitical instability on financial markets. The results indicate that the October 7, 2023 war exerted a greater impact, as evidenced by heightened skewness and an increased probability of extreme returns. Moreover, the estimated coefficients on war and the escalation dummy variables are significantly negative, confirming the adverse effects of such events on market performance. Among all the conflicts analyzed, the October 2023 war exhibited the largest negative influence on stock returns and volatility, underscoring its exceptional severity within the broader context of regional instability.</p>

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Economic Consequences of War: Evidence from the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange

  • Maen F. Nsour

摘要

This study employed the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-in-mean model to examine and compare the response of daily stock returns, measured by the TA-125 index from the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, to two scenarios: the ongoing war that began on October 7, 2023 between Israel and Gaza, and the cumulative effect of five Israel-Gaza wars occurring between January 1, 2008 and February 27, 2025, capturing asymmetric volatility responses and persistence effects. Thus, this paper provides a methodological contribution to the literature by using a new approach to evaluate how the Israeli stock market is affected by conflicts and escalations and assesses how the impact of the October 7, 2023 war compares to previous wars between 2008 and 2025. By concentrating on a single but repeatedly affected economy, the paper advances the field of conflict-finance literature toward understanding the cumulative impact of prolonged geopolitical instability on financial markets. The results indicate that the October 7, 2023 war exerted a greater impact, as evidenced by heightened skewness and an increased probability of extreme returns. Moreover, the estimated coefficients on war and the escalation dummy variables are significantly negative, confirming the adverse effects of such events on market performance. Among all the conflicts analyzed, the October 2023 war exhibited the largest negative influence on stock returns and volatility, underscoring its exceptional severity within the broader context of regional instability.