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<p>It is argued that the declining share of the United States dollar in global foreign exchange reserves may accelerate due to the United States geopolitically distancing from the rest of world, as directed by the second Trump Administration. Either the global international monetary system will fracture or conceivably, but with low probability, the euro or the renminbi could take the dollar’s place as the primary reserve asset. These developments are set in historical perspective beginning in the nineteenth century where a succession of international monetary regimes imposed monetary discipline on the members. Each monetary regime has been replaced because of the tight monetary discipline it imposed. The successor post-1973 regime has been long running because it allows greater monetary policy freedom.</p>

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Review of Past, Present and Possible Future Exchange Rate Regimes

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月1日

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  • Paul Hallwood

摘要

It is argued that the declining share of the United States dollar in global foreign exchange reserves may accelerate due to the United States geopolitically distancing from the rest of world, as directed by the second Trump Administration. Either the global international monetary system will fracture or conceivably, but with low probability, the euro or the renminbi could take the dollar’s place as the primary reserve asset. These developments are set in historical perspective beginning in the nineteenth century where a succession of international monetary regimes imposed monetary discipline on the members. Each monetary regime has been replaced because of the tight monetary discipline it imposed. The successor post-1973 regime has been long running because it allows greater monetary policy freedom.