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<p>President Trump levied across the board tariffs of 10% and threatened some countries with rates as high as 145%. A number of estimates of the revenues that could be expected from the tariffs announced on April 2, 2025, “Liberation Day,” were made. However, no one has considered the loss of consumer surplus that may result from the rates that the President has or will impose. This paper presents estimates of that annual loss along with estimates of the associated deadweight loss using data from the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis. Estimates of the revenues from these tariffs made herein are in line with estimates made by the Administration. Of course, the tariff revenues correspond to a loss for consumers. The analysis presented here shows that this loss of consumer surplus per United States household could be over $5,000 annually, with the deadweight loss over $3,000. In short, these tariffs can be expected to place a huge burden on households in the United States, particularly low-income households.</p>

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The Deadweight Losses from “Liberation Day”

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月11日

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  • Jon R. Neill

摘要

President Trump levied across the board tariffs of 10% and threatened some countries with rates as high as 145%. A number of estimates of the revenues that could be expected from the tariffs announced on April 2, 2025, “Liberation Day,” were made. However, no one has considered the loss of consumer surplus that may result from the rates that the President has or will impose. This paper presents estimates of that annual loss along with estimates of the associated deadweight loss using data from the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis. Estimates of the revenues from these tariffs made herein are in line with estimates made by the Administration. Of course, the tariff revenues correspond to a loss for consumers. The analysis presented here shows that this loss of consumer surplus per United States household could be over $5,000 annually, with the deadweight loss over $3,000. In short, these tariffs can be expected to place a huge burden on households in the United States, particularly low-income households.