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<p>Studies on regional trade agreements find heterogeneous trade-promoting effects that depend on the terms of the agreements, sectors and products covered, and the characteristics of signatory countries. The agreements also have different enforcement dates and implementation periods, affecting the identification, estimation, size, and interpretation of their effect on trade. This paper builds on recent advances in the difference-in-differences estimation to explicitly account for any heterogeneous and time-varying effects and multiple implementation periods of trade agreements. Using bilateral trade data between 1962 and 2020 from the <i>Centre d'Études Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales</i>, the estimates show an effect of about 25–30% 10&#xa0;years after implementation, which is larger than the standard two-way fixed estimates. The estimates also show phasing-in effects, in which the effects become larger over time. Furthermore, accounting for anticipation of the agreements affects the timing, size, and significance of these phasing-in effects. Overall, these results highlight the adjustment process for trade policies to take effect.</p>

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Revisiting the Effects of Regional Trade Agreements Using Staggered Adoption Design

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月6日

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  • Kaleb Abreha,
  • Raymond Robertson

摘要

Studies on regional trade agreements find heterogeneous trade-promoting effects that depend on the terms of the agreements, sectors and products covered, and the characteristics of signatory countries. The agreements also have different enforcement dates and implementation periods, affecting the identification, estimation, size, and interpretation of their effect on trade. This paper builds on recent advances in the difference-in-differences estimation to explicitly account for any heterogeneous and time-varying effects and multiple implementation periods of trade agreements. Using bilateral trade data between 1962 and 2020 from the Centre d'Études Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales, the estimates show an effect of about 25–30% 10 years after implementation, which is larger than the standard two-way fixed estimates. The estimates also show phasing-in effects, in which the effects become larger over time. Furthermore, accounting for anticipation of the agreements affects the timing, size, and significance of these phasing-in effects. Overall, these results highlight the adjustment process for trade policies to take effect.