Objectives <p>Estimates the predictive validity of the Ohio Risk Assessment System Community Supervision Tool (ORAS-CST) and racial differences in outcomes both across assessed risk levels and against a comparison group of unassessed individuals.</p> Methods <p>Using a dataset of individuals under supervision across four Pennsylvania counties in 2017 (<i>n</i> = 6,<i>339</i>), we perform Cox proportional hazard modelling to test for racial differences in the association between risk level and recidivism (up to 5 years). We implement a propensity-score matching model to estimate the potential effects of risk assessment on future recidivism across race.</p> Results <p>Risk assessment shows good predictability across racial subgroups with no statistically significant difference when risk level is interacted with race. We estimate that assessment reduces one-year recidivism rates by 8% points (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.001).</p> Conclusions <p>While we find similar effects for racial subgroups separately at one year, estimated treatment effects of assessment fall to zero for Black individuals by year five.</p>