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<p>Mangrove ecosystems provide crucial ecological services but face threats from climate change and unsustainable resource use. This highlights the need for science-based forest management initiatives. Cispatá Bay, located in the Colombian Caribbean, hosts the country’s only mangrove under a regulated sustainable use model. Yet, current management guidelines rely on generalized silvicultural criteria, such as a uniform minimum logging diameter (MLD) of 10&#xa0;cm and a 14 year cutting cycle (CC), which do not reflect species-specific growth dynamics, potentially compromising sustainability. This study aims to improve sustainable forest management in Cispatá Bay by developing species-specific growth models for <i>Rhizophora mangle</i>, a dominant and heavily harvested species. We introduce a novel methodological framework for sustainable forest management in mangrove ecosystems, integrating dendrochronology and biometric modeling to derive ecological management parameters. We combined tree-ring data from 26 dead individuals with forest inventory measurements and applied nonlinear mixed-effects modeling, accounting for autocorrelation and growth eccentricity. The resulting models yielded biologically meaningful ontogenetic traits, including a maximum mean diameter (A<sub>max</sub>) of 40.35&#xa0;cm, a weighted average growth rate (WAGR) of 0.42&#xa0;cm&#xa0;year⁻<sup>1</sup>, a lifespan (t<sub>span</sub>) of 95.12&#xa0;years, and a halflife (t<sub>0.5</sub>) of 41.09&#xa0;years. Additionally, we estimated an MLD of 24&#xa0;cm and a CC of 20&#xa0;years—both substantially higher than current thresholds. These findings suggest that continued application of generalized metrics may compromise forest regeneration, reduce volume recovery, and undermine long-term sustainability. By integrating dendrochronological techniques with biometric modeling, this research provides a replicable framework for evidence-based forest governance in mangroves.</p>

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Species-specific growth models inform sustainable management of Rhizophora mangle in the Colombian Caribbean

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月27日

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  • David Valderrama,
  • Jaime Polanía,
  • Valeria Aguirre,
  • Sergio Alonso Orrego

摘要

Mangrove ecosystems provide crucial ecological services but face threats from climate change and unsustainable resource use. This highlights the need for science-based forest management initiatives. Cispatá Bay, located in the Colombian Caribbean, hosts the country’s only mangrove under a regulated sustainable use model. Yet, current management guidelines rely on generalized silvicultural criteria, such as a uniform minimum logging diameter (MLD) of 10 cm and a 14 year cutting cycle (CC), which do not reflect species-specific growth dynamics, potentially compromising sustainability. This study aims to improve sustainable forest management in Cispatá Bay by developing species-specific growth models for Rhizophora mangle, a dominant and heavily harvested species. We introduce a novel methodological framework for sustainable forest management in mangrove ecosystems, integrating dendrochronology and biometric modeling to derive ecological management parameters. We combined tree-ring data from 26 dead individuals with forest inventory measurements and applied nonlinear mixed-effects modeling, accounting for autocorrelation and growth eccentricity. The resulting models yielded biologically meaningful ontogenetic traits, including a maximum mean diameter (Amax) of 40.35 cm, a weighted average growth rate (WAGR) of 0.42 cm year⁻1, a lifespan (tspan) of 95.12 years, and a halflife (t0.5) of 41.09 years. Additionally, we estimated an MLD of 24 cm and a CC of 20 years—both substantially higher than current thresholds. These findings suggest that continued application of generalized metrics may compromise forest regeneration, reduce volume recovery, and undermine long-term sustainability. By integrating dendrochronological techniques with biometric modeling, this research provides a replicable framework for evidence-based forest governance in mangroves.