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<p>Mangrove ecosystems are globally recognized as critical natural infrastructure, providing essential carbon sequestration and coastal protection services, yet they face increasing vulnerability from environmental change and localized anthropogenic pressures. While general data on mangrove extent exists, a high-resolution, integrated assessment linking long-term spatial dynamics, current ecological health trends, and subsequent science-based restoration prioritization is lacking for the Southeast Mauritius coast. This study aimed to quantify 16&#xa0;years (2009–2025) of regional mangrove change, assess vegetation health using spectral indices, and develop a replicable geospatial framework for identifying and justifying priority restoration sites. Spatial extent was quantified, and health was assessed via long-term index analysis. Key results reveal mixed dynamics: Grand Port and Rivière des Créoles showed net expansion (+ 7.9% and + 23.8%, respectively), while Bambous Virieux experienced a severe decline of 35.5%, indicating high human-induced stress. Furthermore, a widespread slight decline in vegetation health was observed across multiple areas from 2022 to 2025, suggesting latent regional stressors. Optimal restoration zones were identified using an AHP-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, restricted to a 100&#xa0;m hydrological buffer from the 2025 mangrove boundary to ensure tidal connectivity. By weighing proximity to existing stands (45%), terrain slope (35%), and freshwater access (20%), the model identified 283,100.00 ± 13,447.25 m<sup>2</sup> of ‘Very High Suitability’ and 379,700.00 ± 18,035.75 m<sup>2</sup> of ‘High Suitability’ areas. This methodology provides a transparent, data-driven framework for NGOs and management organizations to deploy targeted restoration efforts, ensuring resources effectively address specific threats, from stabilizing contraction zones to reversing recent health declines, thereby enhancing the overall resilience of the Mauritian coast.</p>

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Quantifying decadal mangrove dynamics to inform national restoration targets: a geospatial framework for coastal resilience in Southeast Mauritius

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月21日

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  • Sachooda Ragoonaden,
  • Prakash Juddoo,
  • Jay R. S. Doorga,
  • Rajeev Khoodeeram

摘要

Mangrove ecosystems are globally recognized as critical natural infrastructure, providing essential carbon sequestration and coastal protection services, yet they face increasing vulnerability from environmental change and localized anthropogenic pressures. While general data on mangrove extent exists, a high-resolution, integrated assessment linking long-term spatial dynamics, current ecological health trends, and subsequent science-based restoration prioritization is lacking for the Southeast Mauritius coast. This study aimed to quantify 16 years (2009–2025) of regional mangrove change, assess vegetation health using spectral indices, and develop a replicable geospatial framework for identifying and justifying priority restoration sites. Spatial extent was quantified, and health was assessed via long-term index analysis. Key results reveal mixed dynamics: Grand Port and Rivière des Créoles showed net expansion (+ 7.9% and + 23.8%, respectively), while Bambous Virieux experienced a severe decline of 35.5%, indicating high human-induced stress. Furthermore, a widespread slight decline in vegetation health was observed across multiple areas from 2022 to 2025, suggesting latent regional stressors. Optimal restoration zones were identified using an AHP-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, restricted to a 100 m hydrological buffer from the 2025 mangrove boundary to ensure tidal connectivity. By weighing proximity to existing stands (45%), terrain slope (35%), and freshwater access (20%), the model identified 283,100.00 ± 13,447.25 m2 of ‘Very High Suitability’ and 379,700.00 ± 18,035.75 m2 of ‘High Suitability’ areas. This methodology provides a transparent, data-driven framework for NGOs and management organizations to deploy targeted restoration efforts, ensuring resources effectively address specific threats, from stabilizing contraction zones to reversing recent health declines, thereby enhancing the overall resilience of the Mauritian coast.