Pipe Failure Risk Analysis of Water Distribution Network Using Analytic Hierarchy Process and Geographical Information System
摘要
Pipe failure prediction in water distribution networks has become a necessary tool for Engineers due to the increased risk of pipe bursts. The unavailability and limited availability of pipe failure data limit the use of historical failure-based models to predict pipe failure in the WDN. To overcome this, a new approach was developed to determine the highest-risk pipeline using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographical Information System (GIS). Many factors influence pipe failure; the most significant factors affecting structural integrity and loading conditions, such as internal pressure, pipe material, pipe diameter, traffic type, pipe thickness, and pipe length, were considered in this study. The AHP method was utilized to find the weights of the factors and found that a highest weightage of 30.09% was obtained for internal pressure, followed by pipe material (22.26%), pipe diameter (16.21%), traffic type (15.05%), pipe thickness (9.21%), and length (7.18%). The pipeline map was created as a polyline in ArcGIS 10.5, and the pipe failure risk map was formed using the weighted overlay analysis. The results indicated that 40 mm diameter HDPE pipes under higher internal pressure were at a high risk of failure. Sensitivity and leakage analyses were conducted to validate results from the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the pipe failure risk pipelines, respectively. Thus, this research helps to identify the highest-risk pipelines in GIS during the WDN design stage, helping water designers to improve the network’s performance by altering pipe material before installation.