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<p>Transregional water resources allocation considering inflow forecasting uncertainty is essential for fine water resources management. In this paper, a stochastic dynamic Rubinstein bargaining framework for transregional water resources allocation considering inflow forecasting errors is proposed. In this framework, the dynamic discount factor is established based on three factors: the number of bargaining rounds, the degree of deviation of water demand, and the adjustment coefficient. A quotation strategy considering a dynamic discount factor is developed, and the negotiation cost is determined by considering the time cost and water loss. The influence of the three factors on the dynamic discount factor is discussed, and a comparative study of the Rubinstein bargaining framework based on dynamic and fixed value discount factors is carried out. The evolution law between inflow forecasting uncertainty and the uncertainty of stakeholder allocation results under the dynamic Rubinstein bargaining water resources allocation framework is revealed by the Monte Carlo simulation method. A quantitative relationship is constructed between stakeholders’ allocation results and total water resources uncertainty. The proposed framework is applied to seven administrative regions in the Ganjiang River Basin. The results show that (1) compared with the Rubinstein bargaining framework, which is based on a fixed discount factor, the proposed framework, which is based on a dynamic discount factor, is conducive to achieving balanced coordination among stakeholders at the level of economic and social development. (2) The water allocated to the stakeholders follows a normal distribution under the condition that the inflow forecasting error has a normal distribution. (3) The stakeholder allocation results distribution parameters can be directly derived based on the distribution parameters of the inflow forecast information, thus providing a theoretical basis and decision support for developing scientific and rational water resources allocation schemes.</p>

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A Stochastic Dynamic Rubinstein Bargaining Framework for Transregional Water Resources Allocation Considering Inflow Forecasting Errors

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月16日

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  • Jisi Fu,
  • Tong Ding,
  • Yong Zheng,
  • Bin Xu,
  • Lianghui Li,
  • Feng Yan,
  • Zhongzheng He

摘要

Transregional water resources allocation considering inflow forecasting uncertainty is essential for fine water resources management. In this paper, a stochastic dynamic Rubinstein bargaining framework for transregional water resources allocation considering inflow forecasting errors is proposed. In this framework, the dynamic discount factor is established based on three factors: the number of bargaining rounds, the degree of deviation of water demand, and the adjustment coefficient. A quotation strategy considering a dynamic discount factor is developed, and the negotiation cost is determined by considering the time cost and water loss. The influence of the three factors on the dynamic discount factor is discussed, and a comparative study of the Rubinstein bargaining framework based on dynamic and fixed value discount factors is carried out. The evolution law between inflow forecasting uncertainty and the uncertainty of stakeholder allocation results under the dynamic Rubinstein bargaining water resources allocation framework is revealed by the Monte Carlo simulation method. A quantitative relationship is constructed between stakeholders’ allocation results and total water resources uncertainty. The proposed framework is applied to seven administrative regions in the Ganjiang River Basin. The results show that (1) compared with the Rubinstein bargaining framework, which is based on a fixed discount factor, the proposed framework, which is based on a dynamic discount factor, is conducive to achieving balanced coordination among stakeholders at the level of economic and social development. (2) The water allocated to the stakeholders follows a normal distribution under the condition that the inflow forecasting error has a normal distribution. (3) The stakeholder allocation results distribution parameters can be directly derived based on the distribution parameters of the inflow forecast information, thus providing a theoretical basis and decision support for developing scientific and rational water resources allocation schemes.