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<p>An integrated modelling approach is used in this study that generates climate projections from an ensemble of five CMIP6 General Circulation Models (GCMs) among the three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, over three upcoming time periods (2023–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100). The captured climate data were subjected to statistical downscaling using the SDSM 6.1 model, which has been shown to accurately reproduce historical climate variables for the years 1982–2021. Consequently, the downscaled climate projections provided input using the SWAT hydrology model to model streamflow in the future. The three SSP scenarios will all see a consistent decline in yearly streamflow of 18.25 (SSP1-2.6), 21.7 (SSP2-4.5), and 24.7% (SSP5-8.5), based on outcomes of simulation of increasing temperatures and evapotranspiration combined with some small reductions in precipitation experienced within ERB over the same time period. In conclusion, these findings demonstrate an alarming increase in the level of water stress and of dry conditions throughout ERB, particularly towards the latter half of the 21st century, thus demonstrating an alarming increase in the vulnerability of ERB due to continuing or accelerated climate change, thereby requiring the development of adaptive water resource utilization strategies to successfully manage future supply.</p>

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Hydrological Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Using Downscaled CMIP6 GCM Ensemble

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月16日

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  • Halah Kadhim Tayyeh,
  • Ruqayah Mohammed

摘要

An integrated modelling approach is used in this study that generates climate projections from an ensemble of five CMIP6 General Circulation Models (GCMs) among the three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, over three upcoming time periods (2023–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100). The captured climate data were subjected to statistical downscaling using the SDSM 6.1 model, which has been shown to accurately reproduce historical climate variables for the years 1982–2021. Consequently, the downscaled climate projections provided input using the SWAT hydrology model to model streamflow in the future. The three SSP scenarios will all see a consistent decline in yearly streamflow of 18.25 (SSP1-2.6), 21.7 (SSP2-4.5), and 24.7% (SSP5-8.5), based on outcomes of simulation of increasing temperatures and evapotranspiration combined with some small reductions in precipitation experienced within ERB over the same time period. In conclusion, these findings demonstrate an alarming increase in the level of water stress and of dry conditions throughout ERB, particularly towards the latter half of the 21st century, thus demonstrating an alarming increase in the vulnerability of ERB due to continuing or accelerated climate change, thereby requiring the development of adaptive water resource utilization strategies to successfully manage future supply.