Climate change and anthropogenic pressures significantly affect Mediterranean water resources, necessitating robust trend analysis methods for effective water management. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of hydrometeorological trends in Türkiye’s largest freshwater lake system, the Beysehir Basin (1981–2016), using a multi-method analytical framework. Traditional approaches (Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator) were integrated with advanced techniques (Innovative Trend Analysis, Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis, IV-ITA, and Star-IPTA) to evaluate trends in precipitation, temperature, streamflow, lake water level, and groundwater level. The results reveal statistically significant warming trends at both stations, particularly during the summer months. The strongest increase was observed in summer at Çumra (τ = 0.565, p < 0.0001) and Beyşehir (τ = 0.470, p < 0.0001), with additional significant increases in spring, autumn, and annual temperature series (p < 0.05); However, winter trends were generally not significant. Precipitation trends exhibited considerable spatial variability at the Beyşehir station, September precipitation showed a significant increasing trend under the Yue and Wang (<CitationRef CitationID="CR59">2004</CitationRef>) approach (τ = 0.231, p = 0.007), while spring precipitation at Çumra demonstrated a significant decreasing trend (τ = −0.205, p < 0.05). Annual precipitation trends were not consistently significant across stations. Lake water levels displayed consistent declining trends across multiple temporal scales, and groundwater levels indicated systematic depletion (Sen’s slope: 0.382–0.435 m/yr; Mann–Kendall τ: 0.778–0.86; ITA: 0.459–0.511). A comparative evaluation demonstrated that the innovative methods provided enhanced sensitivity in detecting subtle hydrometeorological changes compared with traditional approaches. Regular polygon patterns in temperature and groundwater analyses contrasted with more irregular precipitation patterns, reflecting distinct environmental response mechanisms. Overall, these findings highlight the increasing vulnerability to water scarcity in the Beyşehir Basin and underscore the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies in Mediterranean watershed systems. The proposed methodological framework provides a replicable template for comprehensive trend assessment in regions experiencing similar climatic and anthropogenic pressures.

An Understanding of Hydrometeorological Trends: A Multi-Method Trend Assessment

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2026年3月19日

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Veysi Kartal,
Abdullah Muratoglu

摘要

Climate change and anthropogenic pressures significantly affect Mediterranean water resources, necessitating robust trend analysis methods for effective water management. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of hydrometeorological trends in Türkiye’s largest freshwater lake system, the Beysehir Basin (1981–2016), using a multi-method analytical framework. Traditional approaches (Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator) were integrated with advanced techniques (Innovative Trend Analysis, Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis, IV-ITA, and Star-IPTA) to evaluate trends in precipitation, temperature, streamflow, lake water level, and groundwater level. The results reveal statistically significant warming trends at both stations, particularly during the summer months. The strongest increase was observed in summer at Çumra (τ = 0.565, p < 0.0001) and Beyşehir (τ = 0.470, p < 0.0001), with additional significant increases in spring, autumn, and annual temperature series (p < 0.05); However, winter trends were generally not significant. Precipitation trends exhibited considerable spatial variability at the Beyşehir station, September precipitation showed a significant increasing trend under the Yue and Wang (2004) approach (τ = 0.231, p = 0.007), while spring precipitation at Çumra demonstrated a significant decreasing trend (τ = −0.205, p < 0.05). Annual precipitation trends were not consistently significant across stations. Lake water levels displayed consistent declining trends across multiple temporal scales, and groundwater levels indicated systematic depletion (Sen’s slope: 0.382–0.435 m/yr; Mann–Kendall τ: 0.778–0.86; ITA: 0.459–0.511). A comparative evaluation demonstrated that the innovative methods provided enhanced sensitivity in detecting subtle hydrometeorological changes compared with traditional approaches. Regular polygon patterns in temperature and groundwater analyses contrasted with more irregular precipitation patterns, reflecting distinct environmental response mechanisms. Overall, these findings highlight the increasing vulnerability to water scarcity in the Beyşehir Basin and underscore the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies in Mediterranean watershed systems. The proposed methodological framework provides a replicable template for comprehensive trend assessment in regions experiencing similar climatic and anthropogenic pressures.