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<p>Socioeconomic drought is essentially a supply–demand imbalance, yet the cumulative water stress generated by this imbalance remains insufficiently quantified in human-modified river basins. This study proposes a non-stationary assessment framework by integrating the GAMLSS model, Copula functions, and Bayesian conditional probability inference, using the lower Yellow River basin (1980–2022) as a case study. We introduce the Socioeconomic Drought Potential Vulnerability Threshold (SEDVT) to quantify the "initial risk load"—defined as the maximum Antecedent Cumulative Water Deficit (ACWD) a system carries at the moment of drought onset. The Drought Resistance Capacity (DR) is further evaluated using the ratio of Conditional Return Periods. The findings reveal: (1) A significant regime shift in drought patterns occurred, with the frequency of severe and extreme droughts decreasing by nearly 40%, while mild droughts increased by 37.5%, revealing a trend of "normalized mild drought". (2) Following the operation of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir, SEDVT values declined by over 50%, indicating that reservoir regulation effectively alleviated the system's historical burden. (3) Under identical stress levels, the recurrence interval of a 20-year drought event from the pre-dam period (1980–2000) extended to approximately 208&#xa0;years in the post-dam period (2002–2022), representing a substantial enhancement in regional drought resistance. This framework provides a robust tool for internalizing human management behavior into drought risk assessment in highly regulated basins.</p>

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Quantitative Assessment of Risk Evolution, Potential Vulnerability Thresholds, and Drought Resistance in Socioeconomic Drought Under a Changing Environment

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月14日

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  • Zeqian Zhao,
  • Yimin Wang,
  • Jianxia Chang,
  • Aijun Guo,
  • Zhiwen Peng

摘要

Socioeconomic drought is essentially a supply–demand imbalance, yet the cumulative water stress generated by this imbalance remains insufficiently quantified in human-modified river basins. This study proposes a non-stationary assessment framework by integrating the GAMLSS model, Copula functions, and Bayesian conditional probability inference, using the lower Yellow River basin (1980–2022) as a case study. We introduce the Socioeconomic Drought Potential Vulnerability Threshold (SEDVT) to quantify the "initial risk load"—defined as the maximum Antecedent Cumulative Water Deficit (ACWD) a system carries at the moment of drought onset. The Drought Resistance Capacity (DR) is further evaluated using the ratio of Conditional Return Periods. The findings reveal: (1) A significant regime shift in drought patterns occurred, with the frequency of severe and extreme droughts decreasing by nearly 40%, while mild droughts increased by 37.5%, revealing a trend of "normalized mild drought". (2) Following the operation of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir, SEDVT values declined by over 50%, indicating that reservoir regulation effectively alleviated the system's historical burden. (3) Under identical stress levels, the recurrence interval of a 20-year drought event from the pre-dam period (1980–2000) extended to approximately 208 years in the post-dam period (2002–2022), representing a substantial enhancement in regional drought resistance. This framework provides a robust tool for internalizing human management behavior into drought risk assessment in highly regulated basins.