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<p>Assessing the causal impact of environmental interventions amid natural variability is a key challenge in watershed management. This study employs a new counterfactual analysis to evaluate the effect of the Kowsar floodwater spreading (FWS) system on the health of the Garbayegan-Fasa Watershed in Iran. Using a pressure-state-response (PSR) framework, watershed health was simulated under four distinct scenarios, including (a) a pre-implementation baseline; (b) FWS with static environmental conditions; (c) FWS with dynamic environmental changes; and (d) a counterfactual scenario without FWS under dynamic changes. The results provide strong, model-based evidence that the flood-spreading system is the primary driver of improved watershed health. The analysis shows that the FWS system alone (Scenario b) significantly increased the health index by over 100%. Even under observed climatic and hydrological pressures (Scenario c), health remained high. Notably, the counterfactual scenario (d) indicates that without the intervention, watershed health would have declined to 0.32, a 8.84% decrease. This study demonstrates that the Kowsar FWS system has significantly enhanced and protected watershed health, underscoring the vital role of nature-based solutions for sustainable management in arid regions.</p>

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Watershed Health Dividend of Floodwater Spreading: Quantifying Benefits Through Counterfactual Scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月8日

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  • Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi,
  • Fariba Esmaeili,
  • Elham Azizi,
  • Reza Chamani,
  • Masoumeh Havasi,
  • Fatemeh Kateb,
  • Mojtaba Pakparvar,
  • Hamed Beigi,
  • Negin Behnia

摘要

Assessing the causal impact of environmental interventions amid natural variability is a key challenge in watershed management. This study employs a new counterfactual analysis to evaluate the effect of the Kowsar floodwater spreading (FWS) system on the health of the Garbayegan-Fasa Watershed in Iran. Using a pressure-state-response (PSR) framework, watershed health was simulated under four distinct scenarios, including (a) a pre-implementation baseline; (b) FWS with static environmental conditions; (c) FWS with dynamic environmental changes; and (d) a counterfactual scenario without FWS under dynamic changes. The results provide strong, model-based evidence that the flood-spreading system is the primary driver of improved watershed health. The analysis shows that the FWS system alone (Scenario b) significantly increased the health index by over 100%. Even under observed climatic and hydrological pressures (Scenario c), health remained high. Notably, the counterfactual scenario (d) indicates that without the intervention, watershed health would have declined to 0.32, a 8.84% decrease. This study demonstrates that the Kowsar FWS system has significantly enhanced and protected watershed health, underscoring the vital role of nature-based solutions for sustainable management in arid regions.