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<p>Maintaining natural flow regimes in river ecosystem management is critical for sustaining ecological integrity. Current risk assessment methodologies for hydrological regime variations often lack the comprehensive integration of multidimensional flow characteristics. This study developed an integrated risk assessment framework that quantifies ecological risks through a dynamic time-series analysis of flow regime deviations from natural hydrological baselines. Using the Pengxi River in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China as a case study, our model revealed risk escalation following reservoir impoundment, with risk indices increasing from 0.30 during pre-impoundment to 0.41 post-impoundment. The derived risk profiles demonstrated two critical patterns: 1) a declining trend in extreme flow risk, and 2) increasing trends in the coefficient of variation and annual flow indices, which demonstrated the greatest contribution to the consequences. These findings provide operational insights for reservoir management and emphasize the necessity of prioritizing flow variability restoration and magnitude control in regulated river systems.</p>

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Estimation of the Hydrological Regime Variability Risk of a Regulated River

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月10日

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  • Chenguang Xiang,
  • Wei Huang,
  • Cuixia Yao,
  • Le Luo,
  • Rong Zhang,
  • Jing Wang,
  • Pan Yang

摘要

Maintaining natural flow regimes in river ecosystem management is critical for sustaining ecological integrity. Current risk assessment methodologies for hydrological regime variations often lack the comprehensive integration of multidimensional flow characteristics. This study developed an integrated risk assessment framework that quantifies ecological risks through a dynamic time-series analysis of flow regime deviations from natural hydrological baselines. Using the Pengxi River in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China as a case study, our model revealed risk escalation following reservoir impoundment, with risk indices increasing from 0.30 during pre-impoundment to 0.41 post-impoundment. The derived risk profiles demonstrated two critical patterns: 1) a declining trend in extreme flow risk, and 2) increasing trends in the coefficient of variation and annual flow indices, which demonstrated the greatest contribution to the consequences. These findings provide operational insights for reservoir management and emphasize the necessity of prioritizing flow variability restoration and magnitude control in regulated river systems.