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<p>Streamflow is a crucial indicator of regional water resource availability. This study proposes a Variable Infiltration Capacity model-based quantification framework for the individual contributions of climate change and human activities to long-term streamflow changes in the Songhua River Basin (SRB), a major agricultural basin (550,000 km<sup>2</sup>) in Northeast China. Land use/land cover (LULC) changes and water withdrawal were identified as the dominant drivers of streamflow changes. Specifically, LULC changes accounted for 42.43% of the streamflow reduction from sp1 (1960–1979) to sp2 (1980–1993). Then, water withdrawal became the primary factor between 1994 and 2017, explaining 48.30% of the streamflow changes in SRB. Among them, irrigation consumption surged significantly from 9.02% to 25.03%. Precipitation proved to be the dominant climate factor, explaining 27.68% of the streamflow changes on average. These results highlight the significant impact of human water consumption on hydrological regimes, and the proposed framework is transferable for assessing individual contributions of human activities to the streamflow of other river basins globally.</p>

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Quantifying Individual Contribution of Human Activities on Long-Term Streamflow Change in a Large Climate-Sensitive River Basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月29日

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  • Xiaoya Wang,
  • Fengping Li,
  • Guangxin Zhang,
  • Y. Jun Xu,
  • Yanfeng Wu,
  • Fan Liu,
  • Hongze Wang

摘要

Streamflow is a crucial indicator of regional water resource availability. This study proposes a Variable Infiltration Capacity model-based quantification framework for the individual contributions of climate change and human activities to long-term streamflow changes in the Songhua River Basin (SRB), a major agricultural basin (550,000 km2) in Northeast China. Land use/land cover (LULC) changes and water withdrawal were identified as the dominant drivers of streamflow changes. Specifically, LULC changes accounted for 42.43% of the streamflow reduction from sp1 (1960–1979) to sp2 (1980–1993). Then, water withdrawal became the primary factor between 1994 and 2017, explaining 48.30% of the streamflow changes in SRB. Among them, irrigation consumption surged significantly from 9.02% to 25.03%. Precipitation proved to be the dominant climate factor, explaining 27.68% of the streamflow changes on average. These results highlight the significant impact of human water consumption on hydrological regimes, and the proposed framework is transferable for assessing individual contributions of human activities to the streamflow of other river basins globally.