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<p>Large reservoirs play a key role in regulating water availability and supporting multiple uses, including irrigation, public supply, industry, and hydropower generation. This study develops a System Dynamics model to assess the water dynamics and the supply capacity of the Três Marias Reservoir in Brazil under different hydrological conditions, using daily inflow and withdrawal data from January 2004 to June 2024. The model was calibrated and validated, showing excellent agreement with observed water levels (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.958; NSE = 0.967). Sensitivity analysis identified inflow, turbine discharge, and evaporation as the most influential variables affecting storage. Simulations applying hedging operation rules, by adjusting trigger levels (52–62% of total volume) and turbine discharge reductions (11–39%), increased the minimum stored volume by 63–70%, ensuring a reliable water supply for multiple uses during dry periods. Moreover, a small reduction in evaporation (0.11%) enhanced the reservoir’s resilience. The model uniquely integrates hedging operations and evaporation control, offering a practical decision-support tool to optimize water allocation, maintain environmental flows, and enhance multipurpose water use under climatic uncertainties.</p>

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System Dynamics Model for Assessing the Water Dynamics and the Capacity of Large Reservoirs to Supply Multiple Uses

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月23日

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  • Alisson Lopes Rodrigues,
  • Ricardo Santos Silva Amorim,
  • Pedro Manuel Villa

摘要

Large reservoirs play a key role in regulating water availability and supporting multiple uses, including irrigation, public supply, industry, and hydropower generation. This study develops a System Dynamics model to assess the water dynamics and the supply capacity of the Três Marias Reservoir in Brazil under different hydrological conditions, using daily inflow and withdrawal data from January 2004 to June 2024. The model was calibrated and validated, showing excellent agreement with observed water levels (R2 = 0.958; NSE = 0.967). Sensitivity analysis identified inflow, turbine discharge, and evaporation as the most influential variables affecting storage. Simulations applying hedging operation rules, by adjusting trigger levels (52–62% of total volume) and turbine discharge reductions (11–39%), increased the minimum stored volume by 63–70%, ensuring a reliable water supply for multiple uses during dry periods. Moreover, a small reduction in evaporation (0.11%) enhanced the reservoir’s resilience. The model uniquely integrates hedging operations and evaporation control, offering a practical decision-support tool to optimize water allocation, maintain environmental flows, and enhance multipurpose water use under climatic uncertainties.