<p>Climate change-induced ecosystem alterations have exerted impacts on wild peonies’ reproduction, thereby motivating this research focused on their habitats. As crucial germplasm resources for peony breeding, wild peonies offer valuable insights into climate adaptation, which is essential for their conservation and sustainable utilization. This study employs the Biomod2 ensemble model to project the habitats of <i>Paeonia jishanensis</i>, <i>Paeonia ostii</i>, and <i>Paeonia rockii</i> within Mountain-Plain Intersection Zone of the Yellow River Basin, and precisely identifies key environmental variables. The results indicate that precipitation is the primary environmental variable affecting the distribution of the three wild peonies. During the baseline period, peony conservation areas are concentrated in the Funiu and Xiong’er Mountains of the Yi-Luo River Basin. Future climate scenarios predict an expansion of these areas, with the SSP370 scenario showing the most significant increase. This suggests that mild warming may benefit the distribution of peonies in Mountain-Plain Intersection Zone of the Yellow River Basin, with Xiaoqinling becoming a crucial new conservation area. Meanwhile, the centroid shift analysis indicates that climate change may shift conservation areas northward, although within a limited range. Furthermore, protected areas during the baseline period cover only 23.2% of the key conservation areas, with the rate of conservation gaps ranging from 44.4 to 87.5% under various climate scenarios, and these gaps are largely concentrated in the southern part of the Yi-Luo River Basin. Therefore, based on the identified protection gap areas, we propose to implement intensified monitoring programs, initiate ecological restoration projects, and establish collaborative protection frameworks involving local communities and institutions to strengthen the protection of areas with protection gaps. These initiatives will play an important role in the protection of wild peonies in the region.</p>

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The impact of climate change on the suitable habitats of three wild peonies in mountain-plain intersection zone of the Yellow River Basin

  • Haotian Guo,
  • Yuyang He,
  • Peixia Ye,
  • Jihui Xia,
  • Shanshan Jin,
  • Mengli Zhou,
  • Dongfeng Yan

摘要

Climate change-induced ecosystem alterations have exerted impacts on wild peonies’ reproduction, thereby motivating this research focused on their habitats. As crucial germplasm resources for peony breeding, wild peonies offer valuable insights into climate adaptation, which is essential for their conservation and sustainable utilization. This study employs the Biomod2 ensemble model to project the habitats of Paeonia jishanensis, Paeonia ostii, and Paeonia rockii within Mountain-Plain Intersection Zone of the Yellow River Basin, and precisely identifies key environmental variables. The results indicate that precipitation is the primary environmental variable affecting the distribution of the three wild peonies. During the baseline period, peony conservation areas are concentrated in the Funiu and Xiong’er Mountains of the Yi-Luo River Basin. Future climate scenarios predict an expansion of these areas, with the SSP370 scenario showing the most significant increase. This suggests that mild warming may benefit the distribution of peonies in Mountain-Plain Intersection Zone of the Yellow River Basin, with Xiaoqinling becoming a crucial new conservation area. Meanwhile, the centroid shift analysis indicates that climate change may shift conservation areas northward, although within a limited range. Furthermore, protected areas during the baseline period cover only 23.2% of the key conservation areas, with the rate of conservation gaps ranging from 44.4 to 87.5% under various climate scenarios, and these gaps are largely concentrated in the southern part of the Yi-Luo River Basin. Therefore, based on the identified protection gap areas, we propose to implement intensified monitoring programs, initiate ecological restoration projects, and establish collaborative protection frameworks involving local communities and institutions to strengthen the protection of areas with protection gaps. These initiatives will play an important role in the protection of wild peonies in the region.