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<p>Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics&#xa0;and drivers of urban vegetation spring&#xa0;phenology (UVSP) is critical for&#xa0;safeguarding urban ecosystems. In response to the&#xa0;limited availability of scalable, mechanism-oriented&#xa0;tools for analyzing UVSP. We propose a Local Climate Zones (LCZ)-stratified, mechanism-oriented framework for UVSP: cities are partitioned into four LCZ intensity tiers (high, medium, low, natural). Random Forests (RF) are combined with Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to (i) identify the principal drivers of urban spring phenology and (ii) quantify the direct and indirect effects of urbanization on phenology, thereby enabling cross-city, mechanism-comparable diagnosis within a unified structure. We apply the framework to three cities sharing a similar climatic background yet exhibiting distinct urbanization profiles—Hefei, Changzhou, and Huzhou. Measurement diagnostics for formative composites and global fit indices support model adequacy. Results showed that a spatial delay gradient was observed from high-intensity urban zones to natural zones, especially in Huzhou (+ 30.4 days) and Hefei (+ 27.1 days).&#xa0;Start of growing season (SOS)&#xa0;of the three cities showed significant differences under different urbanization intensity levels. The contributions of urban and climatic factors to the SOS followed a three-stage pattern: human-dominated stage–transitional equilibrium–climate-regulated stage: urbanization indicators (e.g., impervious surface, nighttime light) dominated in high-intensity urban zones (&gt; 55%), while climate factors (e.g., temperature, sunshine) prevailed in natural zones (&gt; 51%). PLS-SEM indicates persistently negative direct effects of urbanization on SOS in high-intensity zones (Hefei − 0.315; Changzhou − 0.238; Huzhou − 0.435), alongside smaller indirect climate-mediated effects whose signs vary by zone/city; total effects generally decay toward near-zero with decreasing intensity. By unifying LCZ-intensity mapping with effect-decomposition modeling, this study provides mechanism-readable evidence to inform climate-adaptive urban planning—prioritizing impervious-surface and light-pollution management in high-intensity zones and enhancing microclimate connectivity and climate resilience in lower-intensity and natural zones. These findings provide insights for climate-adaptive urban planning and green space design.</p>

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Urbanization intensity and its effect on vegetation phenology in urban areas and beyond: evidence from three representative cities in the Yangtze river delta

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月28日

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  • Xueqin He,
  • Kaijian Xu,
  • Shengnan Jiang,
  • Ping Zhao,
  • Xiaoqing Zuo,
  • Shuzhou Wang

摘要

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of urban vegetation spring phenology (UVSP) is critical for safeguarding urban ecosystems. In response to the limited availability of scalable, mechanism-oriented tools for analyzing UVSP. We propose a Local Climate Zones (LCZ)-stratified, mechanism-oriented framework for UVSP: cities are partitioned into four LCZ intensity tiers (high, medium, low, natural). Random Forests (RF) are combined with Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to (i) identify the principal drivers of urban spring phenology and (ii) quantify the direct and indirect effects of urbanization on phenology, thereby enabling cross-city, mechanism-comparable diagnosis within a unified structure. We apply the framework to three cities sharing a similar climatic background yet exhibiting distinct urbanization profiles—Hefei, Changzhou, and Huzhou. Measurement diagnostics for formative composites and global fit indices support model adequacy. Results showed that a spatial delay gradient was observed from high-intensity urban zones to natural zones, especially in Huzhou (+ 30.4 days) and Hefei (+ 27.1 days). Start of growing season (SOS) of the three cities showed significant differences under different urbanization intensity levels. The contributions of urban and climatic factors to the SOS followed a three-stage pattern: human-dominated stage–transitional equilibrium–climate-regulated stage: urbanization indicators (e.g., impervious surface, nighttime light) dominated in high-intensity urban zones (> 55%), while climate factors (e.g., temperature, sunshine) prevailed in natural zones (> 51%). PLS-SEM indicates persistently negative direct effects of urbanization on SOS in high-intensity zones (Hefei − 0.315; Changzhou − 0.238; Huzhou − 0.435), alongside smaller indirect climate-mediated effects whose signs vary by zone/city; total effects generally decay toward near-zero with decreasing intensity. By unifying LCZ-intensity mapping with effect-decomposition modeling, this study provides mechanism-readable evidence to inform climate-adaptive urban planning—prioritizing impervious-surface and light-pollution management in high-intensity zones and enhancing microclimate connectivity and climate resilience in lower-intensity and natural zones. These findings provide insights for climate-adaptive urban planning and green space design.