<p>Surface modification treatments are widely employed to enhance the performance of materials, often resulting in layered mechanical properties along the material’s height. The majority of research into friction and wear of materials relies on finite element methods (FEM). However, when accounting for topography of very thin surface layers, FEM encounters specific constraints. This paper introduces a novel approach for predicting the wear morphology evolution of layered materials subsequent to surface modification, specifically under ball-on-disk contact conditions. This methodology discretizes the surface into cells, considering the wear process of the cells from a microscopic perspective. The stress distribution within the contacting area is computed based on a balance of forces between the ball and the discretized surface, with the equivalent elastic modulus serving as a proxy for the substrate’s elastic modulus. Additionally, the model is made more realistic by incorporating the effects of boundary lubrication via a load-sharing approach and plastic deformation of surface asperities. Leveraging the Archard’s model, a wear equation for discrete surface cells is formulated to ascertain the wear volume. The availability of this method is substantiated by comparing simulation outcomes with experimental data for carburized 16Cr3, carburized followed by shot-peened 16Cr3, and carburized, shot peened, and subsequently coated 16Cr3 materials subjected to different temperature conditions, revealing a maximum discrepancy of 17.1% between predicted and experimental wear rates. This methodology enables swift predictions of material wear performance under varying conditions, thus aiding in layered material selection, design, and optimization processes.</p>