The many faces of confidence: sensitivity and meta-confidence in economic decision-making
摘要
While the effects of overconfidence on economic outcomes are well-documented, the implications of confidence sensitivity, the extent to which confidence judgments are informative about true abilities, have been largely overlooked. Yet in many contexts, a lack of sensitivity may be just as detrimental as overconfidence, as it prevents individuals from accurately identifying their strengths and weaknesses, a skill that is particularly crucial in educational and career choices. Moreover, recent research in cognitive psychology suggests that individuals can form informative beliefs about their own confidence sensitivity, but whether such “meta-confidence” influences their behavior remains an open question. To shed light on these issues, we design a laboratory experiment studying individuals’ compensation scheme choices using a canonical economic framework (Niederle & Vesterlund,