<p>Computing ratios of normalizing constants plays an important role in statistical modeling. Two important examples are hypothesis testing in latent variables models, and model comparison in Bayesian statistics. In both examples, the likelihood ratio and the Bayes factor are defined as the ratio of the normalizing constants of posterior distributions. We propose in this article a new methodology that estimates this ratio using stochastic approximation principle. Our estimator is consistent and asymptotically Gaussian. Its asymptotic variance is smaller than the one of the popular optimal bridge sampling estimator. Furthermore, it is much more robust to little overlap between the two unnormalized distributions considered. Thanks to its online definition, our procedure can be integrated in an estimation process in latent variables models, reducing the computational effort. The performances of the estimator are illustrated through a simulation study and compared to two other estimators: the ratio importance sampling and the optimal bridge sampling estimators.</p>

错误:搜索内容不能为空,请输入英文关键词
错误:关键词超出字数限制,请精简
高级检索

Estimation of ratios of normalizing constants using stochastic approximation: the SARIS algorithm

  • Tom Guédon,
  • Charlotte Baey,
  • Estelle Kuhn

摘要

Computing ratios of normalizing constants plays an important role in statistical modeling. Two important examples are hypothesis testing in latent variables models, and model comparison in Bayesian statistics. In both examples, the likelihood ratio and the Bayes factor are defined as the ratio of the normalizing constants of posterior distributions. We propose in this article a new methodology that estimates this ratio using stochastic approximation principle. Our estimator is consistent and asymptotically Gaussian. Its asymptotic variance is smaller than the one of the popular optimal bridge sampling estimator. Furthermore, it is much more robust to little overlap between the two unnormalized distributions considered. Thanks to its online definition, our procedure can be integrated in an estimation process in latent variables models, reducing the computational effort. The performances of the estimator are illustrated through a simulation study and compared to two other estimators: the ratio importance sampling and the optimal bridge sampling estimators.