<p>Predicting major solar flares, which pose significant risks to both space-based and terrestrial infrastructure, remains a critical challenge in space-weather research. In this paper, we propose a novel Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-based framework that includes both a data preprocessing pipeline and a predictive model named <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>C</mi> <mi>m</mi> <mi>o</mi> <mi>d</mi> </math></EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$Cmod$</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, designed to leverage Multivariate Time-Series (MVTS) data of solar magnetic field parameters to forecast flare events. Our framework is developed using a MVTS benchmark dataset SWAN-SF, which includes about 4100 Active Region (AR) sequences with 24 magnetic-field parameters sampled at 12-minute intervals. However, this dataset is characterized by over 10 million missing values, severe class imbalance, and strong temporal dependencies arising from its sliding-window construction. To address these challenges, we propose a new data preprocessing pipeline that incorporates an improved data-splitting strategy, designed to mitigate the scarcity and imbalance of major flares while preserving temporal independence between training and test sets. Experimental results show that, for predicting M-class or greater solar flares within 12 hours using SHARP magnetic-field data from 2010 – 2018, <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>C</mi> <mi>m</mi> <mi>o</mi> <mi>d</mi> </math></EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$Cmod$</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> achieves the highest overall True Skill Statistics (TSS) score of 0.86, outperforming eight existing MVTS-based approaches and three ablated variants of <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>C</mi> <mi>m</mi> <mi>o</mi> <mi>d</mi> </math></EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$Cmod$</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in improving solar flare prediction and advancing space-weather forecasting.</p>

错误:搜索内容不能为空,请输入英文关键词
错误:关键词超出字数限制,请精简
高级检索

Predicting Major Solar Flares Using Convolutional Neural Networks and Multivariate Magnetic Field Time-Series Data

  • Arash Azizian Foumani,
  • Soheila Farokhi,
  • Xiaojun Qi

摘要

Predicting major solar flares, which pose significant risks to both space-based and terrestrial infrastructure, remains a critical challenge in space-weather research. In this paper, we propose a novel Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-based framework that includes both a data preprocessing pipeline and a predictive model named C m o d $Cmod$ , designed to leverage Multivariate Time-Series (MVTS) data of solar magnetic field parameters to forecast flare events. Our framework is developed using a MVTS benchmark dataset SWAN-SF, which includes about 4100 Active Region (AR) sequences with 24 magnetic-field parameters sampled at 12-minute intervals. However, this dataset is characterized by over 10 million missing values, severe class imbalance, and strong temporal dependencies arising from its sliding-window construction. To address these challenges, we propose a new data preprocessing pipeline that incorporates an improved data-splitting strategy, designed to mitigate the scarcity and imbalance of major flares while preserving temporal independence between training and test sets. Experimental results show that, for predicting M-class or greater solar flares within 12 hours using SHARP magnetic-field data from 2010 – 2018, C m o d $Cmod$ achieves the highest overall True Skill Statistics (TSS) score of 0.86, outperforming eight existing MVTS-based approaches and three ablated variants of C m o d $Cmod$ . These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in improving solar flare prediction and advancing space-weather forecasting.