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<p>A long-term prediction approach for solar cycles is proposed by including the century-scale modulation in the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) and XSODA (Extended Solar Dynamo Amplitude) indices of Schatten and Pesnell, MSODA and MXSODA. Additionally, we also introduce a new technique, the minimal fluctuation method, to reduce temporal fluctuations. By combining this method with MSODA, we predict that Solar Cycle 26 will reach a maximum sunspot number of <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="11207_2025_2459_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="14" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="103" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mn>109.14</mn> <mo>±</mo> <mn>32.92</mn> </math></EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$109.14\pm 32.92$</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> in the year <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="11207_2025_2459_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="14" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="87" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mn>2035.3</mn> <mo>±</mo> <mn>2.3</mn> </math></EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$2035.3 \pm 2.3$</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. Using MXSODA, the most reliable indicator, the peak is expected to reach a maximum amplitude of <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="11207_2025_2459_Article_IEq3.gif" Format="GIF" Height="14" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="103" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mn>160.70</mn> <mo>±</mo> <mn>47.83</mn> </math></EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$160.70\pm 47.83$</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> on the same date.</p>

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Magnitude Prediction of Solar Cycle 26 Using a New Precursor Approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月8日

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  • Mohammed Akram Zermane,
  • Nadia Oulebsir,
  • Mohamed Reda Bekli,
  • Zahir Belhadi,
  • Katia Becheker,
  • Abdeldjalil Zaidi,
  • Abdelghani Hadj Hammou

摘要

A long-term prediction approach for solar cycles is proposed by including the century-scale modulation in the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) and XSODA (Extended Solar Dynamo Amplitude) indices of Schatten and Pesnell, MSODA and MXSODA. Additionally, we also introduce a new technique, the minimal fluctuation method, to reduce temporal fluctuations. By combining this method with MSODA, we predict that Solar Cycle 26 will reach a maximum sunspot number of 109.14 ± 32.92 $109.14\pm 32.92$ in the year 2035.3 ± 2.3 $2035.3 \pm 2.3$ . Using MXSODA, the most reliable indicator, the peak is expected to reach a maximum amplitude of 160.70 ± 47.83 $160.70\pm 47.83$ on the same date.