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<p>The Ganges Delta, largely situated in Bangladesh, is one of the world’s most densely populated and climate-exposed regions, where environmental vulnerability intersects with persistent poverty. Although national poverty trends are well documented, systematic evidence from designated climate hotspots remains limited. We address this knowledge gap by examining poverty trends and factors associated with poverty across seven climatic hotspots identified in the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, using 93,601 repeated cross-sectional household observations from 1995 to 2019. Results show a substantial decline in poverty across all hotspots over the past two decades; however, progress has been spatially uneven. Persistent deprivation remains pronounced in the Barind and drought-prone areas, followed by relatively less hazard-prone (RLHP), estuarine, coastal, haor and flood, hill, and urban regions. These disparities are associated with environmental stress, limited livelihood diversification, infrastructural deficits, restricted service access, and weak social capital. Extreme poverty in several hotspots remains both persistent and volatile, indicating continued structural vulnerability despite aggregate improvements. A dynamic within-cohort fixed-effects pseudo-panel regression reveals that human capital accumulation, economic transformation, improved living standards, digital access, gender equity, and social capital significantly reduce poverty risk, whereas adverse health conditions, demographic pressures, and exposure to climatic shocks exacerbate it. Across hotspots, we identify a structural climate–poverty paradox: environmental stressors heighten consumption volatility and erode welfare gains even amid economic progress. Robustness checks using a nonparametric two-stage copula control function to address endogeneity corroborate these findings. Overall, the study underscores the need for spatially differentiated, climate-responsive policies rather than centralized poverty reduction strategies.</p>

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The Climate Paradox of Poverty: Two Decades of Evidence from the Ganges Delta

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月19日

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  • Md Abdur Rouf Sarkar,
  • Md Jahid Ebn Jalal,
  • Mohammad Jahangir Alam,
  • Ismat Ara Begum,
  • Bo Yang,
  • Shijun Ding

摘要

The Ganges Delta, largely situated in Bangladesh, is one of the world’s most densely populated and climate-exposed regions, where environmental vulnerability intersects with persistent poverty. Although national poverty trends are well documented, systematic evidence from designated climate hotspots remains limited. We address this knowledge gap by examining poverty trends and factors associated with poverty across seven climatic hotspots identified in the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, using 93,601 repeated cross-sectional household observations from 1995 to 2019. Results show a substantial decline in poverty across all hotspots over the past two decades; however, progress has been spatially uneven. Persistent deprivation remains pronounced in the Barind and drought-prone areas, followed by relatively less hazard-prone (RLHP), estuarine, coastal, haor and flood, hill, and urban regions. These disparities are associated with environmental stress, limited livelihood diversification, infrastructural deficits, restricted service access, and weak social capital. Extreme poverty in several hotspots remains both persistent and volatile, indicating continued structural vulnerability despite aggregate improvements. A dynamic within-cohort fixed-effects pseudo-panel regression reveals that human capital accumulation, economic transformation, improved living standards, digital access, gender equity, and social capital significantly reduce poverty risk, whereas adverse health conditions, demographic pressures, and exposure to climatic shocks exacerbate it. Across hotspots, we identify a structural climate–poverty paradox: environmental stressors heighten consumption volatility and erode welfare gains even amid economic progress. Robustness checks using a nonparametric two-stage copula control function to address endogeneity corroborate these findings. Overall, the study underscores the need for spatially differentiated, climate-responsive policies rather than centralized poverty reduction strategies.