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<p>Biohydrogen is increasingly positioned as a zero-emission energy vector capable of decarbonizing hard to abate sectors, yet little is known about how biohydrogen inventions progress through global patent systems. Existing bibliometric studies rely heavily on patent counts and citation networks, overlooking the survival dynamics that shape the transition from application to grant and the time varying nature of factors influencing patent outcomes. This study proposes an integrated patent landscape model combining survival analysis and research capability assessment. First, Cox proportional hazards regression is used to estimate time to grant for biohydrogen patent applications filed in seven major patent offices, with proportionality tested through Schoenfeld residuals and addressed using stratified and time varying specifications. Second, a calibrated relative research capability (RCA) framework is developed, with robustness evaluated through CRITIC and maximum entropy weighting and validated using 1000 resample bootstrap confidence intervals. Results show a median grant time of 18&#xa0;months and a cumulative survival probability of 0.639 at 50&#xa0;months. Legal status emerges as the strongest predictor of grant likelihood, though diagnostics indicate violations of proportional hazards, requiring model stratification. RCA rankings remain highly stable across weighting schemes, consistently identifying the U.S. Department of Energy, the University of California, Syngenta, and CSIRO as leading contributors. These findings offer new insights for patent offices, technology transfer organizations, and policymakers seeking to accelerate innovation and commercialization in green hydrogen technologies.</p>

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Patent time-to-event and research capability analysis of biohydrogen production technology and applications

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月4日

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  • Roberto Louis Forestal,
  • Su-Houn Liu

摘要

Biohydrogen is increasingly positioned as a zero-emission energy vector capable of decarbonizing hard to abate sectors, yet little is known about how biohydrogen inventions progress through global patent systems. Existing bibliometric studies rely heavily on patent counts and citation networks, overlooking the survival dynamics that shape the transition from application to grant and the time varying nature of factors influencing patent outcomes. This study proposes an integrated patent landscape model combining survival analysis and research capability assessment. First, Cox proportional hazards regression is used to estimate time to grant for biohydrogen patent applications filed in seven major patent offices, with proportionality tested through Schoenfeld residuals and addressed using stratified and time varying specifications. Second, a calibrated relative research capability (RCA) framework is developed, with robustness evaluated through CRITIC and maximum entropy weighting and validated using 1000 resample bootstrap confidence intervals. Results show a median grant time of 18 months and a cumulative survival probability of 0.639 at 50 months. Legal status emerges as the strongest predictor of grant likelihood, though diagnostics indicate violations of proportional hazards, requiring model stratification. RCA rankings remain highly stable across weighting schemes, consistently identifying the U.S. Department of Energy, the University of California, Syngenta, and CSIRO as leading contributors. These findings offer new insights for patent offices, technology transfer organizations, and policymakers seeking to accelerate innovation and commercialization in green hydrogen technologies.