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<p>Marine protected areas (MPAs) are vital for conserving marine biodiversity and managing fishery resources. Ecological connectivity, defined as the interconnection between populations, communities, ecosystems, or habitats through the exchange of genes, organisms, nutrients, and energy, is a key consideration in MPA evaluation and design. Focusing on three commercially and ecologically important migratory fish species with contrasting life histories—the estuarine-dependent <i>Coilia mystus</i>, the nearshore <i>Harpadon nehereus</i>, and the long-distance migratory <i>Larimichthys crocea</i>, we assessed climate-change impacts on ecological connectivity in MPAs of the Yangtze River estuary and adjacent waters using habitat suitability, corridor resistance, electric current density, and pinch-point metrics. We predicted the current and future suitable habitats of the target species and then transformed these projections into resistance surfaces to identify least-cost ecological corridors and key migration pinch points under current and future scenarios. The results show that <i>C. mystus</i> is projected to experience the most severe habitat loss, consistent with its strong dependence on estuarine mixing zones and narrow tolerance to physicochemical changes. In contrast, <i>L. crocea</i> is projected to expand overall, driven by warming temperatures broadening thermally suitable habitat northward. <i>H. nehereus</i> shows an intermediate response, with expanding suitable area but declining habitat quality. Under future climate scenarios, electric current density between MPAs is expected to decrease for <i>C. mystus</i> but increase for <i>H. nehereus</i> and <i>L. crocea</i>. Corridor resistance is projected to increase for <i>C. mystus</i> under most future scenarios, indicating greater migration difficulty, whereas <i>H. nehereus</i> and <i>L. crocea</i> generally show reduced resistance and improved connectivity, particularly in the northern Yangtze River estuary, although <i>H. nehereus</i> shows a slight increase under SSP126-2100. Pinch-point areas are expected to decrease for <i>L. crocea</i>, remain stable for <i>H. nehereus</i>, and increase for <i>C. mystus</i>. Overall, climate change is projected to reshape MPA connectivity in a species-specific manner, reducing connectivity for <i>C. mystus</i> but generally enhancing connectivity for <i>H. nehereus</i> and <i>L. crocea</i>. These findings reveal that the current MPA network may provide declining protection for estuarine-dependent species while offering increasing coverage for thermally responsive offshore species, highlighting the need for adaptive, connectivity-informed MPA network redesign that prioritizes persistent multi-species bottleneck corridors and anticipates climate-driven northward habitat shifts.</p>

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Climate change reshapes species-specific connectivity among marine protected areas in the Yangtze River estuary and adjacent waters

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月20日

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  • Han Dong,
  • Jian Ma,
  • Guodong Li,
  • Zhenkun Bian,
  • Qingqiang Ren,
  • Wei Huang,
  • Jiangning Zeng,
  • Yue Liu,
  • Xu Zeng

摘要

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are vital for conserving marine biodiversity and managing fishery resources. Ecological connectivity, defined as the interconnection between populations, communities, ecosystems, or habitats through the exchange of genes, organisms, nutrients, and energy, is a key consideration in MPA evaluation and design. Focusing on three commercially and ecologically important migratory fish species with contrasting life histories—the estuarine-dependent Coilia mystus, the nearshore Harpadon nehereus, and the long-distance migratory Larimichthys crocea, we assessed climate-change impacts on ecological connectivity in MPAs of the Yangtze River estuary and adjacent waters using habitat suitability, corridor resistance, electric current density, and pinch-point metrics. We predicted the current and future suitable habitats of the target species and then transformed these projections into resistance surfaces to identify least-cost ecological corridors and key migration pinch points under current and future scenarios. The results show that C. mystus is projected to experience the most severe habitat loss, consistent with its strong dependence on estuarine mixing zones and narrow tolerance to physicochemical changes. In contrast, L. crocea is projected to expand overall, driven by warming temperatures broadening thermally suitable habitat northward. H. nehereus shows an intermediate response, with expanding suitable area but declining habitat quality. Under future climate scenarios, electric current density between MPAs is expected to decrease for C. mystus but increase for H. nehereus and L. crocea. Corridor resistance is projected to increase for C. mystus under most future scenarios, indicating greater migration difficulty, whereas H. nehereus and L. crocea generally show reduced resistance and improved connectivity, particularly in the northern Yangtze River estuary, although H. nehereus shows a slight increase under SSP126-2100. Pinch-point areas are expected to decrease for L. crocea, remain stable for H. nehereus, and increase for C. mystus. Overall, climate change is projected to reshape MPA connectivity in a species-specific manner, reducing connectivity for C. mystus but generally enhancing connectivity for H. nehereus and L. crocea. These findings reveal that the current MPA network may provide declining protection for estuarine-dependent species while offering increasing coverage for thermally responsive offshore species, highlighting the need for adaptive, connectivity-informed MPA network redesign that prioritizes persistent multi-species bottleneck corridors and anticipates climate-driven northward habitat shifts.