Indicator species of climate change: ommastrephid squids’ past, present, and future
摘要
Squids, invaluable organisms for humanity’s protein supply and marine ecosystems, face significant challenges due to climate-induced disturbances in their oceanic habitats. Our understanding of the intricate interplay between the potential positive and negative effects of climate change on such opportunists’ population dynamics has been spatially and temporally limited. Here we constructed a suite of species distribution models to generate scenario-based projections of these relationships across four geographically distinct squid stocks in the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean spanning from 1900 to 2100 under five socio-economic emission scenarios. Our results indicate that the impact of oceanic physical and biological factors varies by species, which may be attributed to their unique abilities to swim both vertically and horizontally. Based on our historical hindcasts, the modeled CPUE (as a relative abundance index) appears to have maintained stability despite annual fluctuations. Our models suggest that such trends might persist under scenarios of mild climate change in the future. However, under moderate to severe climate scenarios, both poleward migrations and fluctuations in this relative abundance index are expected to intensify, which could be driven by the dynamics of suitable habitats. The modeled manifestations of climate change underscore the imperative to proactively manage squid resources, with a focus on open ocean ecosystem dynamics and global seafood security.