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Abstract <p>Predicting the response of oceanic apex predators to climate change is a critical frontier in marine science, essential for global food security and biodiversity conservation. For highly migratory tuna and billfish, such efforts have been hindered by fragmented data and an inability to disentangle the complex environmental drivers shaping their vulnerable early life stages across entire ocean basins. A lack of clarity regarding early life history introduces substantial uncertainty into population assessments and undermines climate-ready management. We overcome this long-standing challenge by applying a geostatistical framework to the most extensive record of larval tuna and billfish ever assembled. Our analysis provides the first basin-wide reconstruction of historical (1960–85) spawning habitats for nine key species in the Pacific Ocean. We project that ongoing warming will drive divergent, species-specific outcomes, with four commercially important tuna species facing habitat contraction while others, including Pacific bluefin tuna, find thermal refuge. Critically, the model identifies sea-water pH, phosphate concentration, and sea-surface height as powerful modulators of larval abundance, revealing that ocean acidification and nutrient dynamics present a compounding threat. The resulting spatially explicit forecasts are crucial for designing resilient marine protected areas and implementing dynamic, ecosystem-based fisheries management.</p>

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Tuna and billfish larval distributions in a warming ocean

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月16日

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  • Hirotaka Ijima,
  • Marko Jusup

摘要

Abstract

Predicting the response of oceanic apex predators to climate change is a critical frontier in marine science, essential for global food security and biodiversity conservation. For highly migratory tuna and billfish, such efforts have been hindered by fragmented data and an inability to disentangle the complex environmental drivers shaping their vulnerable early life stages across entire ocean basins. A lack of clarity regarding early life history introduces substantial uncertainty into population assessments and undermines climate-ready management. We overcome this long-standing challenge by applying a geostatistical framework to the most extensive record of larval tuna and billfish ever assembled. Our analysis provides the first basin-wide reconstruction of historical (1960–85) spawning habitats for nine key species in the Pacific Ocean. We project that ongoing warming will drive divergent, species-specific outcomes, with four commercially important tuna species facing habitat contraction while others, including Pacific bluefin tuna, find thermal refuge. Critically, the model identifies sea-water pH, phosphate concentration, and sea-surface height as powerful modulators of larval abundance, revealing that ocean acidification and nutrient dynamics present a compounding threat. The resulting spatially explicit forecasts are crucial for designing resilient marine protected areas and implementing dynamic, ecosystem-based fisheries management.