<p>We examine whether stock returns in Germany are related to Google search volume originating from firms' headquarter states. In detail, we study whether headquarter-state Google search volume, search volume concentration across states, and search interest from Hesse state, which is home to Frankfurt, are related to and help predict excess returns, absolute excess returns, and price variation. We also test whether the effect of local bias or search concentration on excess returns differs across positive and negative excess return periods. We find that headquarter-state search volume is positively associated with contemporaneous excess returns for large-cap (DAX) stocks; for mid-cap (MDAX) stocks, the relationship is delayed, while for small-cap (SDAX) stocks and the combined sample, there is no such link. Search concentration across states is likewise positively associated with the excess returns of large-cap stocks, suggesting that geographically concentrated attention itself carries return-relevant information. Together, these results suggest that investors may hold a local information advantage regarding large-cap stocks, though this advantage may extend beyond the firm’s headquarters. Besides, intensified searches from Hesse state can sometimes be associated with higher absolute excess returns in small-cap stocks, showing investors located in the financial center might have an information advantage. Moreover, during positive (negative) excess return periods, search concentration is associated with lower (higher) excess returns, implying either an information advantage or contrarian behavior. Our results are also supported by robustness checks on subsamples sorted by liquidity and analyst coverage. These findings have implications for market efficiency and investor behavior.</p>

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Local bias in German stocks: information advantage or familiarity?

  • Ali Eray Bulut,
  • Cumhur Ekinci

摘要

We examine whether stock returns in Germany are related to Google search volume originating from firms' headquarter states. In detail, we study whether headquarter-state Google search volume, search volume concentration across states, and search interest from Hesse state, which is home to Frankfurt, are related to and help predict excess returns, absolute excess returns, and price variation. We also test whether the effect of local bias or search concentration on excess returns differs across positive and negative excess return periods. We find that headquarter-state search volume is positively associated with contemporaneous excess returns for large-cap (DAX) stocks; for mid-cap (MDAX) stocks, the relationship is delayed, while for small-cap (SDAX) stocks and the combined sample, there is no such link. Search concentration across states is likewise positively associated with the excess returns of large-cap stocks, suggesting that geographically concentrated attention itself carries return-relevant information. Together, these results suggest that investors may hold a local information advantage regarding large-cap stocks, though this advantage may extend beyond the firm’s headquarters. Besides, intensified searches from Hesse state can sometimes be associated with higher absolute excess returns in small-cap stocks, showing investors located in the financial center might have an information advantage. Moreover, during positive (negative) excess return periods, search concentration is associated with lower (higher) excess returns, implying either an information advantage or contrarian behavior. Our results are also supported by robustness checks on subsamples sorted by liquidity and analyst coverage. These findings have implications for market efficiency and investor behavior.