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<p>In a market-based childcare system with limited public support, many American families bear the full cost of formal care. While previous studies suggest that low-skill immigration facilitates the outsourcing of household labor, the specific mechanism operating through childcare prices remains underexplored. This paper examines this channel using county-level data from the National Database of Childcare Prices (NDCP), the Annual Social and Economic Supplements of the Current Population Survey (CPS-ASEC), and the American Community Survey (ACS). We find that a one percentage point increase in the share of low-educated female immigrants is associated with a statistically significant decrease of 1.8% to 3.5% in family day care prices, but has no significant effect on center-based care prices. Consistent with this supply-side channel, we find that earnings for family day care and private household workers fall by approximately 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. These findings suggest that price reductions are limited to the family day care and informal segments of the market, leaving the formal center-based sector unaffected.</p>

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The effects of female immigration on the U.S. childcare market: evidence from prices and earnings

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月7日

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  • Eunjung Jee

摘要

In a market-based childcare system with limited public support, many American families bear the full cost of formal care. While previous studies suggest that low-skill immigration facilitates the outsourcing of household labor, the specific mechanism operating through childcare prices remains underexplored. This paper examines this channel using county-level data from the National Database of Childcare Prices (NDCP), the Annual Social and Economic Supplements of the Current Population Survey (CPS-ASEC), and the American Community Survey (ACS). We find that a one percentage point increase in the share of low-educated female immigrants is associated with a statistically significant decrease of 1.8% to 3.5% in family day care prices, but has no significant effect on center-based care prices. Consistent with this supply-side channel, we find that earnings for family day care and private household workers fall by approximately 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. These findings suggest that price reductions are limited to the family day care and informal segments of the market, leaving the formal center-based sector unaffected.