<p>This paper examines the relationship between Nepal’s abortion legalization and sex-selective fertility practices, drawing on nationally representative survey data spanning more than three decades. Abortion legalization in the presence of strong son preference—especially after the extension of services to the second trimester in 2009—may have enabled families to act more effectively on gender preferences. Our analysis suggests that, compared to the pre-legalization period, the gap in the likelihood of a girl birth at second or higher parities between families with a first-born daughter and those with a first-born son is estimated to be about 3 percentage points smaller in the post-legalization period of second-trimester abortion. A similar pattern is observed when comparing couples whose older children are all girls with those who already have at least one son. The evidence of sex selection appears more pronounced at higher birth orders: following the legalization of second-trimester abortion, the gap in the likelihood of a girl birth between families with all older children being girls and those with at least one son is estimated to widen to about 9 percentage points at the third parity and roughly 12 percentage points at the fourth. These patterns remain qualitatively robust across alternative sample specifications, though small sample sizes reduce statistical precision when focusing on narrower time windows around legalization. Taken together, the results highlight how reforms designed to expand reproductive rights can potentially interact with entrenched social norms to shape fertility behavior and sex ratios at birth in unintended ways.</p>

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Abortion legalization, son preference, and intensified sex selection in Nepal

  • Santosh Adhikari

摘要

This paper examines the relationship between Nepal’s abortion legalization and sex-selective fertility practices, drawing on nationally representative survey data spanning more than three decades. Abortion legalization in the presence of strong son preference—especially after the extension of services to the second trimester in 2009—may have enabled families to act more effectively on gender preferences. Our analysis suggests that, compared to the pre-legalization period, the gap in the likelihood of a girl birth at second or higher parities between families with a first-born daughter and those with a first-born son is estimated to be about 3 percentage points smaller in the post-legalization period of second-trimester abortion. A similar pattern is observed when comparing couples whose older children are all girls with those who already have at least one son. The evidence of sex selection appears more pronounced at higher birth orders: following the legalization of second-trimester abortion, the gap in the likelihood of a girl birth between families with all older children being girls and those with at least one son is estimated to widen to about 9 percentage points at the third parity and roughly 12 percentage points at the fourth. These patterns remain qualitatively robust across alternative sample specifications, though small sample sizes reduce statistical precision when focusing on narrower time windows around legalization. Taken together, the results highlight how reforms designed to expand reproductive rights can potentially interact with entrenched social norms to shape fertility behavior and sex ratios at birth in unintended ways.