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<p>Coastal communities are projected to experience 50–100 days of high-tide flooding (HTF) annually by the mid-2040s. While such chronic inundation would pose serious threats to livability, surprisingly little is known about how these risks are priced into coastal housing markets. Leveraging plausibly random variation in HTF occurrences, we find that exposure to HTF depresses both rents and home prices, with the impact on rents being three times larger—suggesting that homebuyers anticipate future recovery in rental values. We show that this optimism likely stems from expectations of future adaptation, particularly by governments.</p>

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Annoyed, but Not Alarmed: Sea Level Rise, Chronic Inundation, and Coastal Housing Markets

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月25日

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  • Seunghoon Lee,
  • Siqi Zheng

摘要

Coastal communities are projected to experience 50–100 days of high-tide flooding (HTF) annually by the mid-2040s. While such chronic inundation would pose serious threats to livability, surprisingly little is known about how these risks are priced into coastal housing markets. Leveraging plausibly random variation in HTF occurrences, we find that exposure to HTF depresses both rents and home prices, with the impact on rents being three times larger—suggesting that homebuyers anticipate future recovery in rental values. We show that this optimism likely stems from expectations of future adaptation, particularly by governments.